Bracketology

Will Nebrasketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

  • Total voters
    107
  • Poll closed .
Red Five said:
ESPN's BPI has us winning 3.9 games of the final 7.  % Chance of each win:

@ Wisc 36%

@ Minn 37%

Rut 82%

Mary 56%

@ Ill 48%

Ind 73%

PSU 58%
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The Wisky and Minny percentages are out of whack. Especially since playing at Illinois will be significantly tougher, yet we have a higher percentage chance of winning that game.  :dunno

 
I think 20 is the magic number but sadly it doesn't always work that way.  Plus...any loss they have in the next 7 games will be a "bad" loss, sort of.

I think the key games are Illinois and PSU

 
Red Five said:
ESPN's BPI has us winning 3.9 games of the final 7.  % Chance of each win:

@ Wisc 36%

@ Minn 37%

Rut 82%

Mary 56%

@ Ill 48%

Ind 73%

PSU 58%
Click to expand...
So basically 4-3 winning home games, losing road games.  Would put them at 20-11, 11-7.  That probably wouldn't be enough to get there without a magical run in the conference tournament.  Would make them a solid seed in the NIT.

 
GSG said:
He tweeted this on Saturday:


Not sure how much it has changed since then.
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This is what I have been trying to explain to people on here. Nebraska has exactly 1 quality win (NCAA Defined Tier 1) on it's schedule this year. Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not a NCAA tournament profile. It just isn't. I don't know if people on here just aren't familiar with what criteria the Selection Committee uses or what but Nebraska has a long way to go still. They need to win every game from here on out and probably 2 in the B1G tournament to even be in the conversation.

 
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seaofred92 said:
This is what I have been trying to explain to people on here. Nebraska has exactly 1 quality win (NCAA Defined Tier 1) on it's schedule this year. Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not a NCAA tournament profile. It just isn't. I don't know if people on here just aren't familiar with what criteria the Selection Committee uses or what but Nebraska has a long way to go still. They need to win every game from here on out and probably 2 in the B1G tournament to even be in the conversation.
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For reference, here is Houston's profile currently. Lunardi has them as the last team in the "Last 4 Byes" section: 

http://insider.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/248

Houston RPI: 49

vs RPI Top 25: 2-1

vs RPI Top 50: 4-1

vs RPI Top 100: 4-2

 
seaofred92 said:
This is what I have been trying to explain to people on here. Nebraska has exactly 1 quality win (NCAA Defined Tier 1) on it's schedule this year. Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not a NCAA tournament profile. It just isn't. I don't know if people on here just aren't familiar with what criteria the Selection Committee uses or what but Nebraska has a long way to go still. They need to win every game from here on out and probably 2 in the B1G tournament to even be in the conversation.
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Unfortunately, I agree.  The 1-point loss to Kansas hurts a lot, as do several of the other games that they couldn't close out.  The only chance of getting another big win lies in the BIG Tourney.  Meet up with Purdue, OSU, or MSU and maybe there's a chance.

 
HS_Coach_C said:
Unfortunately, I agree.  The 1-point loss to Kansas hurts a lot, as do several of the other games that they couldn't close out.  The only chance of getting another big win lies in the BIG Tourney.  Meet up with Purdue, OSU, or MSU and maybe there's a chance.
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Yup. Which is why I made such a big deal of the debacle at the end of the tOSU game the other night. Nebraska has blown opportunities for W's against Creighton, KU, and tOSU. You flip those games from L's to W's and all of a sudden Nebraska is right there. It's obviously great that we're winning games against these other teams but what I don't think many people realize here is that the teams we're beating (Iowa, Rutgers, Illinois, etc) really aren't very good at all and therefore wins don't really add anything to our overall profile.

 
seaofred92 said:
Yup. Which is why I made such a big deal of the debacle at the end of the tOSU game the other night. Nebraska has blown opportunities for W's against Creighton, KU, and tOSU. You flip those games from L's to W's and all of a sudden Nebraska is right there. It's obviously great that we're winning games against these other teams but what I don't think many people realize here is that the teams we're beating (Iowa, Rutgers, Illinois, etc) really aren't very good at all and therefore wins don't really add anything to our overall profile.
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Right.  In a typical year, at least some of these wins would look better on paper, but the Big Ten is pretty mediocre/bad after the top 3.  Hopefully Miles & Co. catch fire and win out with a nice showing in the tourney.  I know it's not likely, but at least we're having this discussion instead of having a repeat of last year.

 
Would margin of defeat have any impact? If we win the rest of our games by an average of 10 points versus squeaking out a bunch of wins?

Too bad Maryland gave up that big lead to MSU this weekend. I also don't get the Maryland love. Are you guys saying thay if we win out and win one game in the tournament, that Maryland would go dancing over us? even if we finish 4th in the B1G?

 
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