There are some leaps (like the others doing well, you didn't specify that), but it's not that far off. "Last four games" isn't exactly "four most important games near the end of the season," but it's close. How are we defining "near the end of the season?" And I understand you saying that would allow time for conditioning/learning the defense, but it's still true he wouldn't have played all year to that point.
I admit I thought of the same scenario you did, but barring injury or him being a complete stud I don't see a lot of reason for him to play the biggest games at the end of the year. We've got a lot of depth this year, but like Big Ern pointed out we lose a lot after that. I don't think we're planning on him contributing much this year, but who knows.