Nebraska Toss Up Games in 2015

[Bball1091]

Wait so the SAU game isn't a "gimme" yet Vegas line will favor us. However, us v. Wisconsin is a "gimme" for them because Vegas will favor Wisconsin. Your reasoning seems a bit flawed. Please, don't answer this by telling me how much "experience" you have as I am not questioning that. Also, in anticipating your response, I would say that McNeese St. game is a bit of an abnormality since typically handle lowly D1 programs (also note you can't say one way or the other that we would have won or we would have loss "but-for" Ameer because game was tied when he made that play)

 

[skersfan]

It sounds like a lot of coach speak to me on both sides. Which as we all know is long terminology for BS.

No one knows what this year will bring. But for a lot of us, not on the coaching level, this is exciting and hopeful time. For some of us it is an extremely happy day knowing that we are not led by THE defensive genius.

Coach speak or similar had a lot of people leaving the program because of the love for THE genius. Yet still counting the days for one to leave due to his dislike for the new coach or system.

Just proves none of us know for sure. Doubtful we win them all, possible we lose more than 4, all true possibilities, but the days are much brighter around the program. It appeared more smiles, more excitement and more camaraderie. That for me means there is a chance for improvement, developing a team with like thoughts and spirit. Not a warring neighbor that worries about every little thing going wrong.

Looking at it as regular fan that knows little about the game, I see a group that is excited, both players and coaches. That has to be good.

Reality is, it will be our team again, I am quite certain, not a group that hates us, and only wants to win in spite of us.

Better days either way, more wins or not.

 

[Redux]

I can promise we won't win every game this year. We aren't there yet.

I can promise we beat South Alabama though. Just because Bo let Mcneese State scare us more than we deserved means absolutelty jack squat when mike Riley coaches Nebraska against the Jaguars.

I can't promise we beat Wiscy, nor can i promise we even keep it close. But I can be optimistic, and I'm almost 29 and don't live in a basement.

 

[Bball1091]

I can promise we won't win every game this year. We aren't there yet.

I can promise we beat South Alabama though. Just because Bo let Mcneese State scare us more than we deserved means absolutelty jack squat when mike Riley coaches Nebraska against the Jaguars.

I can't promise we beat Wiscy, nor can i promise we even keep it close. But I can be optimistic, and I'm almost 29 and don't live in a basement.

Agreed! I know it's implicit but me and you are on the same page

 

[jmfb]

I can't promise we beat Wiscy, nor can i promise we even keep it close. But I can be optimistic, and I'm almost 29 and don't live in a basement.

That's different than what you said earlier- "SHould win every game with good coaching"

Unfortunately many rose colored glasses NU fans dont understand how far we are away and how close others are

Extremely difficult to bridge that gap in a short period of time with a coaching staff with no real track record of success or even an AD who has any great track record for hiring football coaches etc No one can say hey this is an Urban Meyer, Nick Saban or even Jerry Kills who has consistently won/turned around every program theyve coached at

Some real data:

In last 5 years

Wisconsin has lost just 1 game by more than 10 points. In many seasons they are a single play (in each loss) away from winning every game on their schedule

Wisconsin is competitive, they are right there in every single game, competing and close to winning them all

In same time period- NU has lost 12 games by more than 10 points. We have a long way to go to be thinking about "should win all of our games"

By that and many metrics- 12-1 we arent in the conversation

Can we see improvement, is there lots of room for improvement? yes

Will we see it, anyones guess, sure hope so. It is a longer road than most understand it to be. Underestimating the competition- overstating NUs capabilities is something the program has suffered with, fans havent been a help in that regard.

 

[Redux]

To think that NU will win the Wisconsin game because of a yet to be proven defensive "facemelter" scheme is a bit muchOregon States defenses of late havent been much to brag about. The DC was on the hotseat there by many accounts Wisconisn has dominated NU of late, lots of big blowoutsJust because its the "Home opener for conference games and we will have a lot to play for this game" means so very little. This team has had a lot to play for and at home and got blown out in the past- with regularity. [/size] Scheme is such a small part of the equation[/size] Im more concerned about:[/size]Discipline, Basic Fundamentals, Focus, Base Execution, Everyone getting on same page, Ball Security[/size] Without those, scheme means very little. If my kids cant get the above right, scheme matters little and this is an unproven scheme with this group of kids. [/size] The author of that blog says NU should win them all, that is crazy talk reserved for 9 year old kids, who are allowed to say such things due to the privilege of youthBeating Wisconsin will be a long shot at best, but that's why they play the games. I hope we win, however expect not to be favored and to lose Everyone is talking about NUs defense here, but look at the defenses OSU produced of lateHow are we going to score consistently? Wisconsin has 8 guys back including all of a top secondary. If we end up being the OSU pass first, offense many expect to see with Tommy at the helm, it could be a very long day for our offense.

With the right coaching, Nebraska SHOULD win every game. You would say the same about Alabama.Nobody said beating Wisconsin would be easy, but to say it is impossible is just silly. For all your knowledge of the game you seem to lack the basic concept of chance. Any team can be beaten on any day. We have found that out the very hard way for 7 years now.Just because Jen Bielma's meal ticket and Gary Anderson had Bo Pelini's number, does not mean squat when Mike Riley hosts Pitt's leftovers.

This is exactly what I said, it was one click away. I know what I said. Would you like to mention it a few more times?

I will saybit again. If Nebraska can get the right coaching which means right players due to good recruiting, Nebraska should be able to win every game. We have done it in the past, we can donit again.

It isnt going to happen this year, or next more than likely. But it could. Shove your "stats" down our throats some more, piss on any optimism you disagree with, thats cool.

 

[Sargon]

Wisky and NU recruiting composite rankings

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NU 16 30 22 36 31

UW 39 65 38 33 34

Having looked at personnel beyond that simple observation, NU IMO will field better players this year than will UW. Maybe NU's new staff will be smart enough to focus on stopping the run

Paul Chryst begins his first year as HC at UW. He has 3 years HC experience at Pitt where his teams went 19-19 (Pitt was 14-12 in the 2 years prior).

Stave's QB numbers were worse than Tommy's last year and he had (as always) negative rushing yards.

UW lost the star RB and the best linemen to graduation/draft.

Count me out of the sure loss to UW camp.

 

[cornographic]

I agree with the toss up games of BYU, U, Wiscy, Minny, and Sparta. I figure we win at least 2 of those, which gives us the 'happy camper' 9 win baseline we've all come to know and 'love'(accept). If we can't beat jNU and IA on a regular basis by now, well, what's the point of being 'Nebraska'--that's the way I see it anyway.

I don't see any game on the schedule that is 'unwinnable'--and that includes Sparta.

There is never a game that is unwinnable. That's why I love sports.

I see a lot of challenges this year, but I wouldn't call one of them unwinnable.

Well, it's not like we have tOSU, Bama, FSU, and the like, on the schedule, is what I'm driving at here. Sparta appears to be the toughest team on the sched., and they are certainly beatable, just ask these guys:

Wiscy is breaking in a new coach as are we, but I would like to think Riley is better than that Chryst guy. Gordon is gonzo so Nathan Gerry can have his ankles back. All that, combined with the experience we have coming back, if I had to pick right now, I'd probably favor NU over Wiscy if played tomorrow--don't forget homefield advantage, because what visiting team isn't a sker'd of THIS?:

All in all, though, being realistic about the season, breaking in the new coaches' systems usually translates into some kind of drop off in the normal W column(unless your name is 'Urban Meyer'). But the sched is easy enough that 9 wins is still probably what's going to happen. 8 wins worse case and 10 wins best case is how I see it.

 

[Enhance]

Wisky and NU recruiting composite rankings

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NU 16 30 22 36 31

UW 39 65 38 33 34

Having looked at personnel beyond that simple observation, NU IMO will field better players this year than will UW. Maybe NU's new staff will be smart enough to focus on stopping the run

Paul Chryst begins his first year as HC at UW. He has 3 years HC experience at Pitt where his teams went 19-19 (Pitt was 14-12 in the 2 years prior).

Stave's QB numbers were worse than Tommy's last year and he had (as always) negative rushing yards.

UW lost the star RB and the best linemen to graduation/draft.

Count me out of the sure loss to UW camp.

I'm right there with you.

Yes, Wisconsin has had our number, and they've been able to keep themselves decently consistent over the years - some great years, some below average years, but still, no less a threat any given game.

But, I don't care what the university is or what your talent is - a new coach changes things at a university and not always for the best in year one. Stave is not a good QB, Melvin Gordon is gone and the game is in Lincoln.

If I left out the name of the team but told someone all about what Wisconsin lost, what they have at QB and that they have a new head coach, people would feel pretty good about the game. It's just because it's Wisconsin people freak out.

I know we're battling some of the exact same problems Wisconsin is, but there's nothing about them that makes me think they're going to win. I'd say the game is a fair toss up at this point.

 

[jmfb]

People here have always underestimated Wisconsin, and the Big 10 for that matter. ALso a fair amount of overestimating NU.

Many here thought NU would waltz right in and be vying for Big 10 titles every year, winning a bunch even

But in the real world Wisconsin has only lost a single game by more than 10 points in the last 5 years, NU has suffered 12- blowout losses in same time period

Wisconsin is a play away from going undefeated every year last 5 years- we arent- not close

Again- Stave isnt very good- but neither is Tommy Armstrong

Stave was hurt last year missed games, his career stats are right in line with Tommys: 5,000 passing yards, 37 tds, 26 Ints, 57% completions, 130 Qb rating

Tommy- 3700 yards, 31 tds 20 ints, 52% completions and 129 QB rating

QBs- yes Stave and Armstrong look about equal, Stave has a little better accuracy, Tommy has more rushing yards, much better runner. But a pro style attack like Wisconsin doesnt ask the QB to run much.

Offensive line this one looks like a toss up. UW replaces 3 offensive linemen- but they always seem to have a great line. NU lost 3 kids between them had 50 starts. But Oline play has been very spotty at NU.

Wisconsin doesnt have a great receiving corps, one with 700 yards. NU has DPE, JW so advantage NU.

Yes Wisconsin lost Gordon, but they have a Heisman Watch RB who ran for 1,000 yards who will be replacing him

So who had the bigger loss- NU with Abdullah or Gordon with Wisconsin? We lose on that comparison IMO, not close. Abdullah was so much better than anything we had behind him

Advantage Wisconsin at RB. Offensively it's a wash at this point. NU has a new system- Wisconsin changes very little, they are who they are. It will all depend on which line shapes up and matures the fastest- Wisconsin has been pretty good at that the last 10+ years, NU not so much. So NU will put its hopes on the back of a spotty QB while Wisconsin tries to do what it always does with a 1,000 yard rusher and the usual Wisconsin like cast.

On D- Wisconsin has 8 returners from a very good defense, all of their DBs return which is bad news matchup wise, because it looks like NU will try and throw a bunch this year

Wisconsin had the #4 ranked D in yards, #13 in Points, NU was in the 40s- 50s.

Based just on that- does NU score a bunch more points against Wisconsin this year with a brand new Offensive System? History with most teams doing this type of transition- answer is no.

NU lost what should have been a 1st round defender off a defense that didnt do very well last year, Could/should NU be better on D- one would hope so, I think so, but we dont know for sure. Banker was on the ropes at OSU. We found out there was a bit of a learning curve on Big 10 football when NU first got into the league. The Wisconsin DC has Big 10 experience. I dont see an NU advantage on defense, Wisconsins defense should be very good.

Special teams- NU definitely has the advantage in this phase minus maybe the FG kicking.

Intangibles- even. Wisconsins kids are used to trouncing NU and NU is playing at home, which isnt that big a deal and hasnt been for awhile. Chryst has the Big 10 and Wisconsin experience, Riley has the post office- years of experience factor.

NU doesnt score many points in this one, the Wisconsin offense does enough to win it. If NU special teams has an extraordinary day an unlikely upset could happen. That's why games are paid and how we are entertained.

Lots here saying we go from where we are to where Wisconsin is in one year due to great coaching. While very likeable, this coaching staff has no track record for big turnarounds- and our AD has no track record for hiring great football coaches. So we are all hopeful it works out, there isnt anything concrete anyone can really hang their hat on. If it works out and that is true, Eichorst comes out of this as the smartest guy in the room. he may very well be, but again no track record to go off of. He let Bo go, that was a good start.

Fan is short for fanatic, but one would hope people would be reasonable in accessing the abilities for this team and coaching staff. I guess it should come as no surprise- Ive listened to the Big Red Overreaction show and heard similar opinions- overreatctions, people not considering all the facts. Typical rah rah fan site, where all we have to do is X- and should win every game thing, or reasoned and unbiased thoughts/analysis on the season ? Vegas has Wisconsin at 9 1/2 wins, NU at 8, and Wisconsin much lower odds to win the Conference than us- Vegas is unbiased and over the long haul they seem to get it right quite a bit over the average fan.

 

[True2tRA]

People here have always underestimated Wisconsin, and the Big 10 for that matter. ALso a fair amount of overestimating NU.

Many here thought NU would waltz right in and be vying for Big 10 titles every year

I do completely agree with that. Wisconsin and also Minnesota in my opinion, don't seem to get the respet they deserve from a lot of Husker fans.

We do seem to over-estimate the Huskers each year but the fans to get a lot of help with that. We were constantly shoved in that direction from some local media, especially Sipple and his never ending quest to convince the world that Bo Pelini was the second coming of Jesus Christ. I think more than anything the fan base over estimated the abilities of that staff. The talent is there as far as the players go in my opinion.

We disagree about Stave vs. Armstrong. Not only do I think Armstrong is better, but it's not even close. Stave benefitted from consistency in play calling, and a strong offensive line and that's the only reason the two look comparable. From purely a talent standpoint, Armstrong is superior and hopefully will benefit from those same things Stave has, especially the offensive line.

I agree, the loss of Abdullah hurts Nebraska more than Wisconsin losing Gordon simply because the previous staff did not do a good job of getting another back reps. Had Abdullah not been injured the carries for bacups would be even lesser. They'd hav ran the wheels off Abdullah much like they did to Burkhead in his senior season.

Wisconsin's offense probably gets the edge because of famiiarity with Chryst and the continuity they'll have in his system. I expect Nebraska to be more consistent and effective as the year progresses, but how much by this point in the season I don't know.

I don't know what to expect from the defense from either team. I do know this. Nebraska will not drop 7 into pass coverage on a regular basis in a display of ignorance and stupidity ike the Great Guru Bo Pelini did. I expect us to crowd the line of scrimmage and commit to stopping the run. With the defensive ine and linebackers we've got, I actually feel like stopping the run is a real possibility if the coaching staff puts them in a position to do so.

Like you said, theres a lot of unknowns here. New coaches in new places. That's why this is a toss up game. I won't use Nebraska's past record against Wisconsin too much because I think the previous coaching staff had a lot to do with the let downs. I won't give Nebraska a real advntage in the game either because I don't know what to expect altogether from the new guys.

 

[jmfb]

I don't know what to expect from the defense from either team.

Wisconsin has 8 kids back from a top 10 defense including 4 starters from the secondary

NU looks to throw a lot- that doesnt look like our defense could be compared to theirs in at all

#4 vs what Number 60? with 8 starters returning: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22

Wisconsin also #4 in the nation in Pass defense with all 4 starters back- I dont see Tommy tearing it up against that group

 

[Landlord]

Yes, we know your credentials. You tell us every post.

I'm almost 29 and don't live in a basement.

lol

 

[True2tRA]

I don't know what to expect from the defense from either team.

Wisconsin has 8 kids back from a top 10 defense including 4 starters from the secondaryNU looks to throw a lot- that doesnt look like our defense could be compared to theirs in at all

#4 vs what Number 60? with 8 starters returning: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22

Wisconsin also #4 in the nation in Pass defense with all 4 starters back- I dont see Tommy tearing it up against that group

NU looks to throw a lot? Based on what information did you come to that conclusion? I've heard nothing indicating that was the goal but either way, I hope we run at least 60% of the time.
I recognize that Wisconsin returns a lot of starters on a highly ranked defense, they should be good, but I don't think Nebraska's defensive ranking from last year applies to this season. I think we need to wait and see before we jump to any conclusions about what kind of defense we will have as far as statisticallly speaking. I've really got to imagine we improve.

Wisconsin has a highly ranked pass defense partly because they don't play any passers for the majority of their schedule. They did lose that safety Caputo right or no? Tommy is one of the better throwers they'll face in conferene. Like I said I hope we aren't moving in the direction of a pass heavy offense but I think Tommy can be effective enough to win any game on the schedule adn the coaches will help him be effective.

I hope you don't think this game is unwinnable? That's not the case.

 

[True2tRA]

I think Vince Valentine and Maliek Collins could have the same impact on a game as Ndamukong Suh had in 2009. Individually, neither is that caliber of player right now, but together they could combine to be a serious force. Then a healthy Rose and Banderas at Linebacker combined with an abundance of talent in the secondary including Nate Gerry and Davie; this defense has the potential at least, to be a very good one.