Nebraska Toss Up Games in 2015

[Redux]

The OP was about the Toss Up games and the authors belief that NU would win all but 1 game

They used the information available now to make their case. The OP posted the article and was looking for feedback- opinions

I totally disagreed with it (opinion) and stated factually why I thought NU was probably a 7-8 outside chance 9 win team

That included using past data like what Mike Riley has done consistently on offense scheme and production wise for the last 10+ years as a basis for that thought and compared it to what has worked and has NOT worked in the Big

It included how well teams did last year- keeping in mind and talking about what they have coming back, vs what NU has coming back

When the numbers/facts done line up with peoples views, they usually change the subject or lash out- pretty common deal\

When guys use past game data to try and bolster their view, like when OSU beat a really down, injured Wisconsin team, worst in 5 years _ I just asked people to put it in context and look at what that really meant- which at the time meant OSU was on par with UTEP, Northern Iowa and Utah State. Most people didnt know that. Cant have it both ways.

To think OSU was +7800 pass over run in last 3 years when the top Big teams were +2500, + 4300 run and +1300 pass is quite telling. Im guessing most people had no idea the gap was so large.

The only thing we have to base how good a team will be is what they did the previous year and what they return from that team.

We know tOSU will be good. They return a lot from a National Championship team.

We know MSU will again have a stout defense but could lack some on offense.

We know Wisconsin will be a threat with a RB that backed up a Heisman contender and a good defense. They do however have a new coach. While he does have a B1G background, he is actually coming from a Big East/ACC/AAC team that was meh last year. I don't expect Wiscy ro toll over by any means but I do expect them to be vunerable enough to beat.

Minnesota has gotten better every year under Kill. Do they return enough to continue that trend? Does the West division out up more of a fight and they take a step back? Hard to say.

Iowa.....anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3. Toss up what they actually do.

NW is back to being what they are supposed to be.

Nebraska ushers in a new coach as well so transition will be expected. The new guy came from a meh team in the Pac 12 and he is no spring chicken. But he is replacing a guy with much less experience that couldn't turn a corner. Riley was left with a pretty good team given the circumstances, the cupboard is hardly bare but some spots could quickly become a liability should injuries pile up. Team chemistry will be huge in determining whether Nebraska turns in another 4 loss (or worse) season, or finally turns the corner and competes with every team they play. The schedule sets up nicely with the 2 biggest conference tests being in Lincoln. Some think that doesn't matter but it beats the hell out of playing them in Camp Randall and East Lansing. Non Conference tests early should show just what we have in store for 2015. I expect a 10-2 season and to be competetive in every game. Im basing most of that off of gut feeling and optimism.

 

[True2tRA]

That included using past data like what Mike Riley has done consistently on offense scheme and production wise for the last 10+ years

It included how well teams did last year

When guys use past game data to try and bolster their view,

See Above and again below........

like when OSU beat a really down, injured Wisconsin team, worst in 5 years _

Dude, that's football, every team deals with injuries. It's part of the game, if you want to use it as an excuse to break down every win/loss then good luck because guys are dinged up every game whether you know about it or not

To think OSU was +7800 pass over run in last 3 years when the top Big teams were +2500, + 4300 run and +1300 pass

What were you saying about using past data? What are Riley's run pass numbers at Nebraska?

 

[Redux]

Riley and Nebraska are getting a fresh start. 11-1 is as likely as 7-5. Ok maybe not AS likely but none of us have any clue what to expect this year. And for the first time in 7 years its kinda refeshing.

 

[skersfan]

Redux, I am worried about you. I am finding myself agreeing with you and for the love of gawd, you sometimes with me.

I think what jmfb is trying to say, is keep your expectations realistic. He sees problems, I think we all do.

I have said a lot of things he is saying, but I started the day Bo got the job.

I see us losing to BYU or Miami, and do not feel it would be the end of the world. New coach, new system, both defense and offense. But it could just as easily turn into a stomp fest from our side. No one really knows. The mark of a good coach is being able to adapt his team to his talent.

We have a descent receivers and one possible super star. But we do not have a true passing QB. Most passes are never even close to being in stride. We are way too short on the QB side to be a pass first offense, and I think Coach Riley has been around long enough to know that. But there is the possibility of Armstrong being developed and progression becoming rapid with good coaching. We have not had that in quite a few years.

What he is saying is not negative to me. He is pointing out what might happen. We are not the bullies of the 90's. If we feel Cryst is a liability for Wisconsin, then you would have to feel the same about Riley. Cake and eat it to idea there it seems.

We have to play the games, no one can say they did it this last year, they will do it the same. Two new coaching staffs, could be totally different.

I am with Redux, all I am looking for is a team that plays 60 minutes, wants to win for Nebraska, and be in the game to the end. Win or lose that is all I ask for. No more lucky wins, no more giant blow outs, beat who we should and play the others, to the point they know they were in a game.

We do not have the talent nor the development of a pipeline like Wisconsin has. That is what we need to attain. Big old boys that live to play with the W on their helmets used to be our cry. They copied us and perfected it over the years. No rebuilding, just reloading. I expect that again this year. You would be foolish to think otherwise I think.

But we have a guy that has beaten top ranked teams, and did it soundly. He truly has more talent and support than he ever has. The kids seem to love him, the media is on board, and the fans that pay the bills seem to be behind 100%. I know I am happy with his selection, and grow more so every single day. sure there will be losses down the road, but as long as we are not stomped into a muddy puddle I can live with it.

just make Nebraska, Nebraska. Hard working, blue collar attitude, team before anything. That is Riley, always has been. I expect him to show us the way and expect us to all be very happy with him. trust me jmfb will be very happy to say he is wrong about this staff and team.

A summer to wait, to work, to develop, to learn to trust the other players and the staff. No short cuts, the Nebraska way all day , every day, every play.

We are going to be proud of this team and program. Believe it, Live it! Be it!