***** Official Election Game Day Thread *****

Hm ok I looked at Georgia a bit... Biden is down by 118,000 votes. Fulton County is 58% reported and Biden has a 158k vote lead there. If the % of votes holds in that county, Biden could gain 113,000 votes from that county. However... I don't know which votes they count first and there are still red counties that aren't fully reported.

 
It's now up to 68% chance for Biden to win Georgia... so I'm not sure about this methodology. They base it off of historical voting I think. Maybe they updated their model based on new % in certain demographics? Or maybe a couple counties came in heavier for Biden than expected? Or maybe the algorithm sucks at using small samples of votes when there is such a predictive variable not accounted for - early voting.

Also:

"Atlanta won’t finish its count tonight. Election workers in Fulton County, who were counting absentee ballots, went home for the night. A water line break delayed the count."

 
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mrandyk said:
Also, this country is incromprehensively stupid. 
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The insane thing about it is it is a lot of the same people as... back when we were not bats#!t crazy. Again... before the internet and cable news. That was my thought as I was going to say, if we transplanted all of the voters from the 1984 election to modern times and they voted, this would be like 80% to 20% and they would wonder wtf is wrong with us. Even some of the people whose former selves it would be.

 
Still a possible map. But it's also still possible Trump could win Arizona or Wisconsin or Michigan or NE-2. Or Biden can win Pennsylvania or Georgia.

wZ7VQ.png


 
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Assuming Arizona and NE-District 2 go to Biden, it will come down to whoever can win 2 of the 3 from WI, MI, and PA.  This also assumes that none of the current state leads change overnight. 

 
ColoradoHusk said:
Assuming Arizona and NE-District 2 go to Biden, it will come down to whoever can win 2 of the 3 from WI, MI, and PA.  This also assumes that none of the current state leads change overnight. 
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Ya, even if Biden wins Arizona and PA and NE-2 and ME-2 he still loses if Trump has Michigan and Wisconsin.

*If Georgia goes to Trump

 
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I guess it should be noted Biden wasn't expected to win by a lot in Nevada. He could still lose there... then Georgia and Arizona become must wins I believe.

 
Nate thinks the Minnesota results are a good sign for Biden. It may be good for Biden's chances from a lawsuit standpoint if Biden loses Pennsylvania but wins the election. But obviously winning all 3 would be better. It's just, PA will be more of a s#!tshow I think. If he didn't need it in order to win, that would be preferable.



NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 12:45 AM



Yeah, that Minnesota projection — which ABC hasn’t made yet! — is bullish for Biden in Wisconsin and Michigan. Maybe less so in Pennsylvania, which was polling more tightly and which isn’t as similar demographically to Minnesota.
 
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