*Redux CFP analysis and prediction*

[Redux]

If Michigan can beat Ohio State (and save my $20) they would win the East and figure to win the title game against us or Wisconsin. They do that, Ohio State gets left out and the playoff looks like:

1 Bama vs 4 Louisville/Washington

2 Clemson vs 3 Michigan

 

[hskrpwr13]

If Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, they won't get in. If PSU wins the Big Ten.....BIG maybe. Alabama is a lock, Ohio State is too if they finish 11-1. When Clemson wins out they are a lock.

So really it's just fighting for the last spot:

-Louisville has been atop the rankings since after week 1. They look to have the Heisman winner. And they have a fun offense to watch, that brings in viewers. Only loss to their division rival and eventual champ Clemson.

-Penn State still has a negative image since we are only a few years removed from the scandal. Plus they will have 2 losses, one to a Pitt team that isn't ranked and another where they got trounced by UM.

-Washington's only hope is to win out and win title game. They have a solid chance of doing that, but their remaining schedule to do so is much harder than the other two already mentioned. If they can manage that, the 4th spot hands down goes to them. If they can't, they are 100% out.

-The Big 12 winner will not get in, no matter what.

I guess where we disagree is the non-football stuff and Wisconsin. I struggle to see a 1-loss non-conference champion of the assumed 3rd ranked conference over a 2-loss conference champ of the assumed best conference. Also, with PSU keep in mind that Pitt team also beat the likely ACC champion who will get in ahead of Louisville if we get chalk.

I agree with your post after the one I quoted above. If Michigan wins the B1G with one loss, that definitely opens the door for the Louisville/non-1 loss PAC champ debate.

 

[GBRHouston]

If Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, they won't get in. If PSU wins the Big Ten.....BIG maybe.

Why would PSU get in if they win, but not Wisconsin? I think Wisconsin is a more solid team imo. Even their seemingly weak offense showed up vastly improved against Illinois last weekend.

 

[Redux]

I prefer conference champions getting in over at large teams that didn't win their division. That said, it's not how the committee works. They rank the teams based off of the eye test, who they beat/when they beat them, who they lost to and (sometimes most importantly) are they the same team that won those games: ie. Did their biggest contributor get hurt?

 

[Redux]

If Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, they won't get in. If PSU wins the Big Ten.....BIG maybe.

Why would PSU get in if they win, but not Wisconsin? I think Wisconsin is a more solid team imo. Even their seemingly weak offense showed up vastly improved against Illinois last weekend.

Because the B1G West is perceived as on par with the SEC East this year. They would have to absolutely demolish the East team like Ohio State did to them a couple years back.

 

[hskrpwr13]

If Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, they won't get in. If PSU wins the Big Ten.....BIG maybe.

Why would PSU get in if they win, but not Wisconsin? I think Wisconsin is a more solid team imo. Even their seemingly weak offense showed up vastly improved against Illinois last weekend.

Because the B1G West is perceived as on par with the SEC East this year. They would have to absolutely demolish the East team like Ohio State did to them a couple years back.

Also, its easier to justify both PSU/OSU since PSU beat #2 OSU. versus having to potentially choose between a 2-loss Wisconsin and a 1-loss OSU that beat them.

 

[junior4949]

I prefer conference champions getting in over at large teams that didn't win their division. That said, it's not how the committee works. They rank the teams based off of the eye test, who they beat/when they beat them, who they lost to and (sometimes most importantly) are they the same team that won those games: ie. Did their biggest contributor get hurt?

This is the problem. A lot of times the best two teams in a conference are in the same division. It's arguable that the best three teams in the B1G this year are in the east. Our final years in the Big 12, the south always had the best two teams. It is so common in fact that I hope when we do go to an 8 team playoff that the power 5 champions don't get automatic spots.

Assuming Ohio State beats Michigan, can you honestly say you'd rather watch OU vs. Bama than you would Ohio State vs. Bama? If Wisconsin was to win the B1G, I don't see them doing any better than Michigan State did last year. I just want the best teams in the playoff. It's easy to sit back and say well they shouldn't have lost a game. However, only Bama has that resume right now. Every year it seems to get harder and harder for teams to finish a season undefeated. I don't see that changing any time soon.

 

[Redux]

If we move to an 8 team playoff it will be directly so all Power 5 champs get a spot. I find it to be nonsense that there is a legitimate chaotic chance that 2 or 3 of the playoff teams may not have won their conference or division.

3 loss team upset undefeated team in title game. Well the upset team is still better. Maybe so, but the underdog still accomplished something that deserves rewarding. If there are 8 spots, 5 should go to champions.

 

[Atbone95]

Ohio State will win the national championship if they get in.

I think it'll come down to Ohio State and Alabama. What makes you so confident the Buckeyes win?

Ohio St is the only team in the country that stacks up to Alabama in terms of talent.

Then, it comes down to competition and preparation. 1) The SEC is weak - no one even ranked in the top 15 except Bama. Ohio St has seen better all season. 2) If I had to win a game, and you put a gun to my head, I'm choosing Urban Meyer over Nick Saban.

 

[junior4949]

If we move to an 8 team playoff it will be directly so all Power 5 champs get a spot. I find it to be nonsense that there is a legitimate chaotic chance that 2 or 3 of the playoff teams may not have won their conference or division.

3 loss team upset undefeated team in title game. Well the upset team is still better. Maybe so, but the underdog still accomplished something that deserves rewarding. If there are 8 spots, 5 should go to champions.

While I realize that we will never agree on this, I find it to be nonsense to put arguably the third/fourth best team in the B1G into the playoff just because they win the conference championship. Most college football fans realize that the conference championship game really is the Ohio State/Michigan game. By choosing power 5 champs, games during the regular season really do become meaningless.

 

[Redux]

So in your opinion, winning the conference means nothing?

 

[junior4949]

Yes, it's completely worthless. I side with TO on this issue that there shouldn't even be conference championship games. Just like in 2012 when a team that was barely bowl eligible won the B1G. If Ohio State beats Michigan, can you honestly say the B1G championship game represents the two best teams? Wisconsin has already been beaten by both Ohio State and Michigan. Penn State got curb stomped by Michigan. Alabama could probably forfeit the SEC championship game and still get into the playoff. They could rest all of their starters and more than likely get into the playoff. The conference championship could also cost a team like Clemson if they were to lose because Louisville would almost be guaranteed a spot in the playoff.

It's safe to say we have a pretty good idea who the best teams are in each conference long before there's ever a conference championship game played. If the B1G's only representative this year is the conference champion in either Wisconsin or Penn State, I will be disappointed. We might as well just hand Bama the trophy and not even have the playoff.

 

[jaws]

So in your opinion, winning the conference means nothing?

It means something but not everything.

All this talk means very little with two regular season games left to play. I have seen enough Michigan State vs OSU games to know that an upset is possible. The Michigan game, even without their QB, will be a fight. I don't see PSU losing to Rutgers but Sparty has enough talent to win that game. I am excited to see how everything plays out regardless if OSU makes it into the playoffs.

 

[jaws]

Yes, it's completely worthless. I side with TO on this issue that there shouldn't even be conference championship games. Just like in 2012 when a team that was barely bowl eligible won the B1G. If Ohio State beats Michigan, can you honestly say the B1G championship game represents the two best teams? Wisconsin has already been beaten by both Ohio State and Michigan. Penn State got curb stomped by Michigan. Alabama could probably forfeit the SEC championship game and still get into the playoff. They could rest all of their starters and more than likely get into the playoff. The conference championship could also cost a team like Clemson if they were to lose because Louisville would almost be guaranteed a spot in the playoff.

It's safe to say we have a pretty good idea who the best teams are in each conference long before there's ever a conference championship game played. If the B1G's only representative this year is the conference champion in either Wisconsin or Penn State, I will be disappointed. We might as well just hand Bama the trophy and not even have the playoff.

That season was an outlier for obvious reasons.

 

[Nebfanatic]

I think Wisconsin would be deserving of a playoff spot if they won the BIG. They have had as tough as a schedule as anyone and performed very well.

I think OSU gets left out if Washington, Clemson, Bama win out. If Washington stumbles again (most likely imo) OSU is in if not I think you get Bama, Clemson at 12-1, Washington at 12-1 and Wisconsin at 11-2 because that is easily justifiable by the committee and it keeps a precedence of importance on a conference title.

If Washington picks up a second loss I think OSU will definitely get in though. SOS and overall resume is important as well and OSU would have that big time over a 2 loss Washington and a 1 loss Louisville, especially if Oklahoma wins the Big 12