The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[FrantzHardySwag]

I think you folks running numbers are doing interesting work, but I think we're all going to be surprised how this shakes out when we get better numbers months from now.

Best numbers will be a antibody test, some have beat the virus and don’t even know it, they are carrying immunity. In a related story New York is testing the use of plasma from recovered to treat it, that’s a big step. Science will beat this, we just need to buy science time. 

 

[Nebfanatic]

Best numbers will be a antibody test, some have beat the virus and don’t even know it, they are carrying immunity. In a related story New York is testing the use of plasma from recovered to treat it, that’s a big step. Science will beat this, we just need to buy science time. 

Bingo this is right on the nose. Social distancing and 'lockdowns' aren't the cure nor are they meant to be. They are crucial steps that create time for science to catch up to the disease.

 

[DevoHusker]

That isn't a worst case scenario and that is 3 weeks from now. In a year it will be much higher. Also you don't calculate fatality rate based on the entire population 

I wasn't, and Red Denver didn't, say fatality rate...that number is based on US population as a whole

 

[DevoHusker]

Fun math time:

Now I know you say, we don't have testing, so it is impossible to know how many cases there are. If we say that even half of the cases are mild, then a week ago the US already had about 10,000 cases.

WAY more than half the cases are mild, and have been since the jump... 80-90%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Nebfanatic]

I wasn't, and Red Denver didn't, say fatality rate...that number is based on US population as a whole

Which is why I'm confused as to why you even brought it up because that isn't really a piece of data anyone is looking at. Especially this early into the crisis. I assume you are trying to downplay the seriousness of this which is not cool really. 

 

[Enhance]

Work > death

In fairness, he's not necessarily wrong. We all know that this can't be the way we operate forever but that's not really the point. His and others' insistence on comparing this to the flu despite medical professionals all over the world condemning this line of thinking is just...  :blink: .

 

[Nebfanatic]

Work > death

In fairness, he's not necessarily wrong. We all know that this can't be the way we operate forever but that's not really the point. His and others' insistence on comparing this to the flu despite medical professionals all over the world condemning this line of thinking is just...  :blink: .

Obviously we can't be shut down forever but we can't go back to normal now. The best way to fix the economy is to deal with the virus as hard and fast as possible. Stock markets will continue to crash until we get the virus under control. Can't fix one without the other 

 

[knapplc]

Do not listen to Doctor Death Cult Cheeto Face. Stay the course. Stay at home.

 

[DevoHusker]

Which is why I'm confused as to why you even brought it up because that isn't really a piece of data anyone is looking at. Especially this early into the crisis. I assume you are trying to downplay the seriousness of this which is not cool really. 

I am looking at it, and that data is readily available. I am not downplaying anything, which I pointed out in my original response, but thanks for your opinion

 

[ZRod]

I think you folks running numbers are doing interesting work, but I think we're all going to be surprised how this shakes out when we get better numbers months from now.

I'm guessing mortality will go down quite a bit, but still be higher than the seasonal flu. The issue is, and always will be, how highly infectious this disease is compared to others; which intern leads to overwhelmed healthcare systems.

 

[RedDenver]

I found that link from earlier in the thread if anyone wants to take a look:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

The author is Tomas Pueyo, and his twitter has a lot of interesting information: https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo

 

[RedDenver]

[No message]

 

[RedDenver]

I found that link from earlier in the thread if anyone wants to take a look:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

The author is Tomas Pueyo, and his twitter has a lot of interesting information: https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo

And his follow-on article:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:

Our healthcare system is already collapsing.
Countries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic.
If they choose the epidemic, hundreds of thousands will die. In some countries, millions.
And that might not even eliminate further waves of infections.
If we fight hard now, we will curb the deaths.
We will relieve our healthcare system.
We will prepare better.
We will learn.
The world has never learned as fast about anything, ever.
And we need it, because we know so little about this virus.
All of this will achieve something critical: Buy Us Time.

If we choose to fight hard, the fight will be sudden, then gradual.
We will be locked in for weeks, not months.
Then, we will get more and more freedoms back.
It might not be back to normal immediately.
But it will be close, and eventually back to normal.
And we can do all that while considering the rest of the economy too.

 

[Danny Bateman]

The amount of people triggered by this tweet is about what you'd expect and I'm here for it.

 

[RedDenver]

@Mavric here's a medical article that supports your hypothesis that covid-19 may be affected by climate:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034728v1

Abstract
As new cases of SARS CoV-2 (aka 2019-nCoV) Coronavirus are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine, hit the developing world, such as sub-Saharan Africa, potentially leading to a global human calamity. It is still early days, but using existing data we develop a large ensemble of ecological niche models that project monthly variation in climate suitability of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus throughout a typical climatological year. The current spread suggests a degree of climate determination with Coronavirus displaying preference for cool and dry conditions. The predecessor SARS-CoV was linked to similar climate conditions. Should the spread of SARS CoV-2 continue to follow current trends, a worst-case scenario of synchronous global pandemic is improbable. More probable is the emergence of asynchronous seasonal global outbreaks much like other respiratory diseases. People in temperate warm and cold climates are more vulnerable. Those in arid climates follow next in vulnerability, while the disease will likely marginally affect the tropics. Our projections minimize uncertainties related with spread of SARS CoV-2, providing critical information for anticipating the adequate social, economic and political responses.