The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

knapplc said:
Speaking of Darwin, I have a feeling there's going to be a surge in evangelical infections/deaths in the coming weeks...
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God sent mask makers and doctors to tell us to wear the masks.   the devil sent con men to tell us to ignore the voices of those that god sent to help us

 
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I think most reasonable people agree that mouth-breathing gumps walking around Costco without masks are stupid. Beyond that, anyone have anything to offer?  What would be a good plan to move the country forward under the circumstances?  

 
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Jason Sitoke said:
I think most reasonable people agree that mouth-breathing gumps walking around Costco without masks are stupid. Beyond that, anyone have anything to offer?  What would be a good plan to move the country forward under the circumstances?  
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We need a good federal, organized response. That hasn't happened and it won't begin to happen until at least January 2021, if ever. Right now we have 50 different plans and if governors don't suck up enough to Trump he threatens to or does withhold help. That Republicans are okay with this and aren't doing anything about it as far as I can tell can be added to the list of disgusting things about them the past 3.5 years.

A federal response could be to use tracking to identify pockets of infection and quarantine those areas while other areas try to work close to BAU. The other, worse, option, is to go back to BAU then quarantine then go back to BAU then quarantine and repeat until we have a vaccine or improved treatment/capacity to handle cases. We can't just go back to normal permanently because hospitals will be overwhelmed. Regardless of what the actual plan is (I'm not an epidemiologist), it needs to be coordinated on a federal level, and Trump and his yes men are f#&%ing morons so there's no reason to get our hopes up and consider that a possibility.

 
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Moiraine said:
We need a good federal, organized response. That hasn't happened and it won't begin to happen until at least January 2021, if ever. Right now we have 50 different plans and if governors don't suck up enough to Trump he threatens to or does withhold help. That Republicans are okay with this and aren't doing anything about it as far as I can tell can be added to the list of disgusting things about them the past 3.5 years.

A federal response could be to use tracking to identify pockets of infection and quarantine those areas while other areas try to work close to BAU. The other, worse, option, is to go back to BAU then quarantine then go back to BAU then quarantine and repeat until we have a vaccine or improved treatment/capacity to handle cases. We can't just go back to normal permanently because hospitals will be overwhelmed. Regardless of what the actual plan is (I'm not an epidemiologist), it needs to be coordinated on a federal level, and Trump and his yes men are f#&%ing morons so there's no reason to get our hopes up and consider that a possibility.
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I would agree that the president is a demented child. Assuming there is no coordinated federal response...what is the goal for the next 12 months?  Broadly, the curve has flattened. Are we still of the mind that our primary concern is medical capacity to treat those that will inevitably require care?  Are we now trying to suppress the virus completely until a vaccine is available?  As a regular person with no political affiliation, what are we trying to do now?

 
Jason Sitoke said:
I would agree that the president is a demented child. Assuming there is no coordinated federal response...what is the goal for the next 12 months?  Broadly, the curve has flattened. Are we still of the mind that our primary concern is medical capacity to treat those that will inevitably require care?  Are we now trying to suppress the virus completely until a vaccine is available?  As a regular person with no political affiliation, what are we trying to do now?
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A lot of this is just guessing on my part.

But I don't see any reason to believe people are more immune now than they were in February, so I also don't have any reason to believe there won't be more outbreaks. I believe the flattening of the curve is temporary in the U.S. based on how we are responding right now. Some countries might not have more big outbreaks because they have tracking and/or are more strict with their quarantines and are quicker to act.

What I'm hoping is that hospitals will be able to increase their capacity to handle this as time goes on so that people can continue to slowly get it over time and the hospitals aren't overwhelmed, and we can take less severe measures to stop it as time goes on. And in the meantime find a vaccine/better treatments.

The other problem in the U.S. is the government isn't willing to provide the safety nets that it should, and we also can't just let a bunch of people starve to death, so we have to try to get back to BAU. 

 
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Moiraine said:
A lot of this is just guessing on my part.

But I don't see any reason to believe people are more immune now than they were in February, so I also don't have any reason to believe there won't be more outbreaks. I believe the flattening of the curve is temporary in the U.S. based on how we are responding right now. Some countries might not have more big outbreaks because they have tracking and/or are more strict with their quarantines and are quicker to act.

What I'm hoping is that hospitals will be able to increase their capacity to handle this as time goes on so that people can continue to slowly get it over time and the hospitals aren't overwhelmed, and we can take less severe measures to stop it as time goes on. And in the meantime find a vaccine/better treatments.

The other problem in the U.S. is the government isn't willing to provide the safety nets that it should, and we also can't just let a bunch of people starve to death, so we have to try to get back to BAU. 
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I agree with everything you say, but what does that look like?   Do you agree with opening up commerce as new cases remain steady?  
I have my own view on how we should move forward, but what I find most frustrating is there doesn’t appear to be a plan.  Different states are forging ahead at different rates, based on seemingly different rules. In late March, everyone in the country knew what we were trying to do. We had all seen the graph of case volume vs medical capacity. I can’t speak for everywhere, but I felt there was a certain degree of solidarity and purpose.  
Almost 2 months later, I’m not sure what we’re striving for. It appears that a vaccine is not especially imminent. I keep hearing that we need a more testing capacity, which I agree with, but not for the reasons I’m given. I hear a lot about contact tracers, which I think is a futile countermeasure at this point, given the rate of infection. 
I read some version of ‘States are reopening as COVID deaths surpass X number’ article every morning.  I guess I’m just curious what everyone’s opinion of what the next 90 days look like in their mind?

 
Jason Sitoke said:
I agree with everything you say, but what does that look like?   Do you agree with opening up commerce as new cases remain steady?  
I have my own view on how we should move forward, but what I find most frustrating is there doesn’t appear to be a plan.  Different states are forging ahead at different rates, based on seemingly different rules. In late March, everyone in the country knew what we were trying to do. We had all seen the graph of case volume vs medical capacity. I can’t speak for everywhere, but I felt there was a certain degree of solidarity and purpose.  
Almost 2 months later, I’m not sure what we’re striving for. It appears that a vaccine is not especially imminent. I keep hearing that we need a more testing capacity, which I agree with, but not for the reasons I’m given. I hear a lot about contact tracers, which I think is a futile countermeasure at this point, given the rate of infection. 
I read some version of ‘States are reopening as COVID deaths surpass X number’ article every morning.  I guess I’m just curious what everyone’s opinion of what the next 90 days look like in their mind?
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It’s very frustrating to not have leadership at the federal level.

I’m guessing individual states will go into panic mode when we get more outbreaks and go back to stricter guidelines again. No governor is gonna want clips of inundated hospitals shown on the news.

 
Moiraine said:
It’s very frustrating to not have leadership at the federal level.

I’m guessing individual states will go into panic mode when we get more outbreaks and go back to stricter guidelines again. No governor is gonna want clips of inundated hospitals shown on the news.
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The ones to watch will be red state governors. Blue state governors aren't really going to get pushed the same way if things get worse again. They'll point to the science and have ample justification for a return to more cautious public health measures to try to stem the tide.

It's going to be an interesting test of their courage and leadership if the best thing to do is impose more restrictions and further disrupt people's lives while being under intense, very public pressure from the president to just keep things as loose as possible so he can try to salvage his re-election hopes. 

Will they have the courage to do what's best for their states if it risks drawing the ire of Trump?

 
Danny Bateman said:
The ones to watch will be red state governors. Blue state governors aren't really going to get pushed the same way if things get worse again. They'll point to the science and have ample justification for a return to more cautious public health measures to try to stem the tide.

It's going to be an interesting test of their courage and leadership if the best thing to do is impose more restrictions and further disrupt people's lives while being under intense, very public pressure from the president to just keep things as loose as possible so he can try to salvage his re-election hopes. 

Will they have the courage to do what's best for their states if it risks drawing the ire of Trump?
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And since there's little to no economic aid coming to people, can we even shutdown again? I think people and businesses are going to start ignoring the next orders because many of them won't be able to survive another shutdown.

 
teachercd said:
Yes!

I think a lot of people posting about how everything should be shut down are still working, still getting paid.  
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I think most are considering the rammifications especially since our politicians are waffling about supporting people.

But I think it would have been better to stay closed longer than to open when cases aren’t decreasing yet. The 2nd wave is going to be a lot bigger than it needed to be. Even if everything is reopened now it’s not like business is going to be booming, especially as people see case #s spike again. 

 
Moiraine said:
It’s very frustrating to not have leadership at the federal level.

I’m guessing individual states will go into panic mode when we get more outbreaks and go back to stricter guidelines again. No governor is gonna want clips of inundated hospitals shown on the news.
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Agreed on the reaction. Until we get clear signs that individual states have crossed a threshold and are experiencing secondary outbreaks, what should be the course of action?  Is it a mistake to be undergoing phased reopening?  Georgia is not a fun example I realize because they are mixing molecular and serological test results. However, hard to ignore the fact that they opened up gyms and hair salons over a month ago and experienced 13 total COVID related deaths statewide yesterday. 
 

 
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