The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

QMany said:
You're talking about the CDC's COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios, not a mortality report. 

0.4% of the United States is 1,312,800 people.
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Who put you under the impression that the extrapolation of this is to take .004 and multiply it by the population of the United States? I'm genuinely asking you for an answer.

It won't work that way. We don't entirely understand what herd immunity will look like nor reinfection. But if it's like other RNA viruses, herd immunity will take over in a population, and it will not be a thing where:

1. Everyone will get it.

2. The death rate will stay flat from where it's at now.

Note: I said if it behaves like other RNA viruses.

 
QMany said:
You're talking about the CDC's COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios, not a mortality report. 

0.4% of the United States is 1,312,800 people.
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Ope, sorry, QMany. I didn't address this quote from you above originally.

Yes, that is correct. You will note that "Column 5" is actually an extrapolation of their current data. 

Did you have a different link from cdc.gov that shows a different figure based on current data? I'm genuinely asking - I've been scouring their site the last month.

 
Undone said:
Hospital mortality? Meaning, the ratio of people that die of coronavirus in the hospital after being admitted & treated there for coronavirus?

If "yes," I'm not even sure why you replied with this to me.

I'm talking about the total percentage of the total amount of Americans that have contracted coronovirus - being asymptomatic or symptomatic - and then dying from it.
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Because you can start extrapolating your answer from this.  Hospitalization rates are MUCH higher for this than the normal flu.  From October 1st to April 1st, there were 410,000 - 740,000 flu hospitalizations.  Of those, 24,000 - 62,000 died.  That's over 6 months. CDC LINK  That's a hospitalization death rate of 5.8 - 8.3%.

The part I'm trying to find is the total number of hospitalizations due to COVID.  If we can find that, then we are closer to your answer because we know the number of deaths.

What is totally meaningless is looking at the total number of people who have tested positive and comparing that to the number of deaths.  It's totally meaningless.  

If we would have mass testing for other diseases to compare to like what we are doing with COVID, then we would have something meaningful to compare it to.   So, if we mass tested the population every year for the flu, then knew the death rate to that number, then we could compare that to the mass test results of COVID and that death rate.

The fact is, when COVID takes off in a community, the hospital system gets over loaded much more than a normal flu season.  Also, one heck of a lot of those hospitalizations end up dying.

 
Undone said:
Did you have a different link from cdc.gov that shows a different figure based on current data? I'm genuinely asking - I've been scouring their site the last month.
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Why would Trump allow the CDC to publish such data?  He wants testing ramped down so it looks like we're doing better to help his reelection.

If Fauci isn't a "voice of reason," who do you think is?

 
Undone said:
I'm talking about the total percentage of the total amount of Americans that have contracted coronovirus - being asymptomatic or symptomatic - and then dying from it.
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The number you want is IFR. IFR is dependent on so many things, IFR in Lombardy, Italy is going to be different from IFR in Sidney, NE - it's not a number you can apply to all places. They estimate IFR to be 1% in some hard hit areas (NYC). Regardless, I would still look to hospitalization numbers/ICU numbers as a guide more than anything. If you have an ICU full of COVID patients, you are losing beds you need for traumas, hearts, etc. If you have a hospital full of COVID patients, you have start cancelling elective surgeries once again, just to ensure bed space. I think that's the most important thing to watch. If there is hospital/ICU bed space - people can assess their own risk  and the healthcare of others can go on in normal-ish manner. If there is no hospital/ICU bed space, then other peoples healthcare is put at risk, and restrictions are needed to ensure there is not an overcrowding of hospitals - and beds/care is available to those who need it. 

 
knapplc said:
Why would Trump allow the CDC to publish such data?  He wants testing ramped down so it looks like we're doing better to help his reelection.

If Fauci isn't a "voice of reason," who do you think is?
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Hi, knapp! Haven't interacted with you in a long time, good to "see you" on here. Really, I've just been off the forum for a couple months.

I didn't expect so many comments from the original thing I posted off of TG's video.

Fauci may well be the best "voice of reason" as compared to any other member of the Trump administration/task forces. But the content of that video clip from him from earlier was completely meaningless - and that was my simple point in my original statement.

Then some extra conversation stemmed off from that original comment, obviously.

 
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BigRedBuster said:
The part I'm trying to find is the total number of hospitalizations due to COVID.
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Fair enough. And I completely agree that hospitalizations/hospital capacity numbers are extremely important to the conversation. 

BigRedBuster said:
What is totally meaningless is looking at the total number of people who have tested positive and comparing that to the number of deaths.  It's totally meaningless.
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I kinda already went through this with Moiraine earlier. I'm very confused about what lead you to feel that way, but genuinely - I don't feel that much of a desire to keep going on that train of thought.    :)

 
Undone said:
I'm not really sure what to do with this reply.

You originally stated that Fauci's address was "a voice of reason." In the video, he says there'll be more deaths. Is this some kind of monumental conclusion?

A pathogen with ability to kill that hasn't reached herd immunity in a population will result in more deaths...not exactly a brilliant comment.
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It is monumental in comparison to the Trump/Pence denial stage.    The 'voice of reason' was a comparison to what trump has been saying. 

 
BigRedBuster said:
Because you can start extrapolating your answer from this.  Hospitalization rates are MUCH higher for this than the normal flu.  From October 1st to April 1st, there were 410,000 - 740,000 flu hospitalizations.  Of those, 24,000 - 62,000 died.  That's over 6 months. CDC LINK  That's a hospitalization death rate of 5.8 - 8.3%.

The part I'm trying to find is the total number of hospitalizations due to COVID.  If we can find that, then we are closer to your answer because we know the number of deaths.

What is totally meaningless is looking at the total number of people who have tested positive and comparing that to the number of deaths.  It's totally meaningless.  

If we would have mass testing for other diseases to compare to like what we are doing with COVID, then we would have something meaningful to compare it to.   So, if we mass tested the population every year for the flu, then knew the death rate to that number, then we could compare that to the mass test results of COVID and that death rate.

The fact is, when COVID takes off in a community, the hospital system gets over loaded much more than a normal flu season.  Also, one heck of a lot of those hospitalizations end up dying.
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I don't think that is true.  I think that most people that get the flu either stay home or stay home and b!^@h (that is what I do), I don't think most run to a hospital...so the #'s are way different. 

 
teachercd said:
I don't think that is true.  I think that most people that get the flu either stay home or stay home and b!^@h (that is what I do), I don't think most run to a hospital...so the #'s are way different. 
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Hospitalization means they were actually admitted, and from everything I've read it's very difficult to get admitted to a hospital due to Covid-19. i.e. you have to be in bad shape. This isn't a case where wimpy people are inflating the #s - there might be more people going to the hospital because they're freaking out, but those people would not be counted in the hospitalization #s unless actually admitted.

 
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Moiraine said:
Hospitalization means they were actually admitted, and from everything I've read it's very difficult to get admitted to a hospital due to Covid-19. i.e. you have to be in bad shape. This isn't a case where wimpy people are inflating the #s - there might be more people going to the hospital because they're freaking out, but those people would not be counted in the hospitalization #s unless actually admitted.
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I know multiple people who had it bad enough they thought they should be admitted but couldn’t get in. 

 
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