The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

FrantzHardySwag said:
Absolutely, I think both you and I had discussed we were hopeful that the virus had gone through the vulnerable population in NY, FL, CA, TX, AZ and we would see this thing flatten out. Arizona and Texas has seen covid hospitalizations shrink big time, death numbers are still too high, but that's a lagging indicator - I'm hopeful that deaths start to see a big decline soon.
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Yep, I believe we had discussed that yeah.

You're probably the closest thing we have to an "expert" on this forum (unless there are others in the medical profession here who just don't chime in on these threads). Another thing that I've though a ton about over the past two months is this, and let's take France as an example.

Let's say France did a much better job at quarantining a large portion of its population than the U.S. did (which I'd assume is almost certainly the reality). Ok, great. But then that chunk of the populous integrates back into daily life.

A portion of them will get exposed. It's not even really a burning question to be answered by an expert; in my opinion it's just common sense. 

My assumption is they'll see more "mini-spikes" because of this. And from what I've read, they actually are. For some reason I've noticed quite a few Americans not really wanting to acknowledge this, and it strikes me as odd...

 
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Okay, when are you done wearing a mask?

Vaccine?

When you are "told" it is safe?

When your city/state lifts a mask mandate?

Never?

I have a feeling i will be wearing one this entire school year.  No matter what Nebraska, Omaha or the White House says.

 
teachercd said:
Okay, when are you done wearing a mask?

Vaccine?

When you are "told" it is safe?

When your city/state lifts a mask mandate?

Never?

I have a feeling i will be wearing one this entire school year.  No matter what Nebraska, Omaha or the White House says.
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I'm pretty sure when I get vaccinated, I would stop wearing a mask everywhere except where it's mandated.  Meaning, if Walmart still requires it, I'll still wear one and I have no problem with that.

I just got back from the weekend in Colorado.  Everyone in Vail had masks and I have no problem wearing one.  It really wasn't that big of a deal.  Wear my neck gator and when I'm around people, I simply pull it up over my face.

 
BigRedBuster said:
I'm pretty sure when I get vaccinated, I would stop wearing a mask everywhere except where it's mandated.  Meaning, if Walmart still requires it, I'll still wear one and I have no problem with that.

I just got back from the weekend in Colorado.  Everyone in Vail had masks and I have no problem wearing one.  It really wasn't that big of a deal.  Wear my neck gator and when I'm around people, I simply pull it up over my face.
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Same. I wear a gaiter and it's convenient and pretty comfortable. I'll stop wearing it when I've had whatever vaccine they produce that has demonstrable effectiveness. Until then, mask up.

 
From the good Doctor himself (there are a lot of statistical replies that refute the paper's hypothesis):  


"The estimates in this paper, if confirmed, would place Sturgis as the largest studied super spreading event in U.S."





 










 













 
I hope the studies check to see whether you can be a transmitter post-vaccination. This is something that there isn't much study data on but that anecdotal evidence seems to suggest is a thing.

I edited my original comment where I had quoted Buster.

 
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Undone said:
There's still a potential though that you'll be able to transmit COVID post-vaccination, though.

The process of vaccination isn't a thing where your immune system necessarily completely destroys the virus in its tracks once you come into "real" exposure to it post-vaccination; you can still potentially be a carrier/spreader. It just prevents you personally from "getting the illness" - which is of course a figurative way of saying "not showing symptoms of the illness."
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Mmmm....no.

The vaccine makes your body produce antibodies that fight the virus within your body, which prevents you from getting the disease.  But, it makes you much less likely to be carrying the virus.  This helps prevent spread.

This is exactly why the anti-vaxers are so dangerous with any of these diseases.  It's because they get it, their body doesn't fight it and they carry it around infecting other people.  If they were to get vaccinated, their bodies would fight off the virus, killing it and preventing them from infecting others.

WHO


 


Protection of the unvaccinated population



Herd protection


Efficacious vaccines not only protect the immunized, but can also reduce disease among unimmunized individuals in the community through “indirect effects” or “herd protection”. Hib vaccine coverage of less than 70% in the Gambia was sufficient to eliminate Hib disease, with similar findings seen in Navajo populations.29,30 Another example of herd protection is a measles outbreak among preschool-age children in the USA in which the attack rate decreased faster than coverage increased.31 Herd protection may also be conferred by vaccines against diarrhoeal diseases, as has been demonstrated for oral cholera vaccines.32

“Herd protection” of the unvaccinated occurs when a sufficient proportion of the group is immune.33 The decline of disease incidence is greater than the proportion of individuals immunized because vaccination reduces the spread of an infectious agent by reducing the amount and/or duration of pathogen shedding by vaccinees,34retarding transmission. Herd protection as observed with OPV involves the additional mechanism of “contact immunization” – vaccine viruses infect more individuals than those administered vaccine.10

The coverage rate necessary to stop transmission depends on the basic reproduction number (R0), defined as the average number of transmissions expected from a single primary case introduced into a totally susceptible population.34 Diseases with high R0 (e.g. measles) require higher coverage to attain herd protection than a disease with a lower R0 (e.g. rubella, polio and Hib).

Because of herd protection, some diseases can be eliminated without 100% immunization coverage.
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BigRedBuster said:
Mmmm....no.

The vaccine makes your body produce antibodies that fight the virus within your body, which prevents you from getting the disease.  But, it makes you much less likely to be carrying the virus.  This helps prevent spread.

This is exactly why the anti-vaxers are so dangerous with any of these diseases.  It's because they get it, their body doesn't fight it and they carry it around infecting other people.  If they were to get vaccinated, their bodies would fight off the virus, killing it and preventing them from infecting others.

WHO


 
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I edited my original statements to be a bit more high-level and I said that I hoped they'd attempt to confirm that the vaccine produced will or won't allow you to be a carrier.

We also don't know whether it will be a live virus vaccine yet or not.

Fair?

 
Undone said:
I edited my original statements to be a bit more high-level and I said that I hoped they'd attempt to confirm that the vaccine produced will or won't allow you to be a carrier.

We also don't know whether it will be a live virus vaccine yet or not.

Fair?
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yes, there are lots of questions that need answered.

 
BigRedBuster said:
yes, there are lots of questions that need answered.
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I think another thing that's just so weird to think about is how many strains there are already. As in, are they potentially preparing the vaccine for a strain that will have run its course and overtaken by a more dominant strain once the vaccine is released.

This is a perennial challenge for producers of the flu vaccine.

 
Undone said:
I think another thing that's just so weird to think about is how many strains there are already. As in, are they potentially preparing the vaccine for a strain that will have run its course and overtaken by a more dominant strain once the vaccine is released.

This is a perennial challenge for producers of the flu vaccine.
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I'm counting on people one hell of a lot smarter than me working on this.

 
Undone said:
I think another thing that's just so weird to think about is how many strains there are already. As in, are they potentially preparing the vaccine for a strain that will have run its course and overtaken by a more dominant strain once the vaccine is released.

This is a perennial challenge for producers of the flu vaccine.
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From what I've read (but it was awhile ago) Covid-19 changes more slowly than the flu.

 
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