The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

Jason Sitoke said:
So because of the source, you dismiss the question out of hand?  

I see a distinction in the question between mask effectiveness and mandate effectiveness. If you don’t, then we’re probably not gonna get anywhere here in this discussion. 
 

I happen to believe that we should be able to ask these questions without being mortified about how the public message gets shaped. Is Fauci being roasted for encouraging vaccine hesitancy because he still won’t travel, saying he’s ‘still in a high risk age group’?
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No, you misunderstand. You are pushing back on the condemnation of Rand Paul's role in fighting the virus. I am asking what he did to help limit its impact. Why should he not be examined with a critical eye for minimizing the effectiveness of masks? 

Or, if I have misunderstood, please show me/us how Dr. Paul helped mitigate the impact of this virus.

 
knapplc said:
No, you misunderstand. You are pushing back on the condemnation of Rand Paul's role in fighting the virus. I am asking what he did to help limit its impact. Why should he not be examined with a critical eye for minimizing the effectiveness of masks? 

Or, if I have misunderstood, please show me/us how Dr. Paul helped mitigate the impact of this virus.
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You’ve misunderstood if you believe my intent is to offer a comprehensive defense of Paul. Might we be better served by removing Rand Paul completely and pretend someone with more merit asked the question?

We can start here...are there indicators that regions with mask mandates performed better than regions without mandates?  Not a loaded question...really wondering. In the data I’ve seen, I don’t see clear evidence.

 
Jason Sitoke said:
You’ve misunderstood if you believe my intent is to offer a comprehensive defense of Paul. Might we be better served by removing Rand Paul completely and pretend someone with more merit asked the question?

We can start here...are there indicators that regions with mask mandates performed better than regions without mandates?  Not a loaded question...really wondering. In the data I’ve seen, I don’t see clear evidence.
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We've covered the fact that mandates weren't enforced, yes?

If you know of a region where masks were enforced with the threat of jail or other penalty, that would be the starting point for the conversation you now seem to want to have.

Where is that?

 
knapplc said:
We've covered the fact that mandates weren't enforced, yes?

If you know of a region where masks were enforced with the threat of jail or other penalty, that would be the starting point for the conversation you now seem to want to have.

Where is that?
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There it is. We’ve spent a lot of time arguing in this country about what governors or mayors have instituted in terms of mask rules, and at the end of the day maybe it didn’t matter much. Maybe it was lack of enforcement, or maybe other factors besides masks became dominant during the surges. 

 
Jason Sitoke said:
Actually, I don’t think he said it ‘caused’ cases to go up. I believe his point is that it didn’t seem to make any difference.  I don’t necessarily agree with him, but there is some data that lends some credence to his point.
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@knapplc, first, let’s look at what he said first. 
 

So, we shouldn’t act like he’s locked into one side of this issue.  

 
Jason Sitoke said:
There it is. We’ve spent a lot of time arguing in this country about what governors or mayors have instituted in terms of mask rules, and at the end of the day maybe it didn’t matter much. Maybe it was lack of enforcement, or maybe other factors besides masks became dominant during the surges. 
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It was a combination of lack of enforcement, lack of public will, and public figures (like Rand Paul) pushing back against known science for political gain.

That did not happen everywhere, and Covid success stories exist. Just not here, and not through the auspices of people like Paul.

 
Jason Sitoke said:
I think a lot of what drove the surge in the summer and winter were the gatherings. I believe that a lot of people were responsible and wore their masks when going to the grocery store, traveling on an airplane, working in an office, etc. And during holidays (4th of July, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas)...friends and family got together...everyone bending the rules in their own way, and the risk stacked up and resulted in some pretty severe outbreaks. Combine that with the fact that most people retreated indoors when it got cold.  Masks or no masks, when people are inside an office building or stuck on an airplane for 4 hours with limited ventilation, you are likely inhaling what others are exhaling at some point. 
 

That’s not an argument to abandon the mask mandates, but rather maybe that masks were too heavily relied on to prevent community spread. 
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@knapplc with this post, he’s not saying masks don’t work.  He’s saying people’s reaction to it makes it not work. There’s an important difference. 

 
Jason Sitoke said:
Recent study seems to contradict what you’re saying here:  https://www.kxly.com/t-cell-recognizes-covid-variants/
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"Third, SARS-CoV-2 lineages might evade immunity generated in response to previous infection.

 
Three recently detected SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1), are unusually divergent and each possesses a unique constellation of mutations of potential biological importance. Of these, two are circulating in Brazil (B.1.1.7 and P.1) and one (P.1) was detected in Manaus on Jan 12, 2021.

 
One case of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection has been associated with the P.1 lineage in Manaus that accrued ten unique spike protein mutations, including E484K and N501K.  Moreover, the newly classified P.2 lineage (sublineage of B.1.128 that independently accrued the spike E484K mutation) has now been detected in several locations in Brazil, including Manaus. P.2 variants with the E484K mutation have been detected in two people who have been reinfected with SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil, and there is in-vitro evidence that the presence of the E484K mutation reduces neutralisation by polyclonal antibodies in convalescent sera."

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext

And there is evidence that contradicts what you are insinuating here.  Point being reinfection by the Brazilian variant which is showing itself to be more contagious and more dangerous to young people is possible. So, a political hack like Rand Paul really ought to shut his pie-hole until we know exactly how these variants are spreading.  Why?  Because we're this close to tamping this thing down and it's deadly.  Just wear a f#&%ing mask  :facepalm:

 
Jason Sitoke said:
Recent study seems to contradict what you’re saying here:  https://www.kxly.com/t-cell-recognizes-covid-variants/
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/10/covid-19-reinfections-are-real-and-serious-all-the-more-reason-to-be-vaccinated/amp/

"For such a drastic acceleration of variant integration, there must have been reinfections. As it turns out, it may have been the driving force. Dr. Faria noted the likelihood that most of the cases observed in P.1’s spread the past few months were reinfections."

Another scientist, Dr. Haseltine, contradicts Paul.  

 
Scarlet said:
"Third, SARS-CoV-2 lineages might evade immunity generated in response to previous infection.

 
Three recently detected SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1), are unusually divergent and each possesses a unique constellation of mutations of potential biological importance. Of these, two are circulating in Brazil (B.1.1.7 and P.1) and one (P.1) was detected in Manaus on Jan 12, 2021.

 
One case of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection has been associated with the P.1 lineage in Manaus that accrued ten unique spike protein mutations, including E484K and N501K.  Moreover, the newly classified P.2 lineage (sublineage of B.1.128 that independently accrued the spike E484K mutation) has now been detected in several locations in Brazil, including Manaus. P.2 variants with the E484K mutation have been detected in two people who have been reinfected with SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil, and there is in-vitro evidence that the presence of the E484K mutation reduces neutralisation by polyclonal antibodies in convalescent sera."

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext

And there is evidence that contradicts what you are insinuating here.  Point being reinfection by the Brazilian variant which is showing itself to be more contagious and more dangerous to young people is possible. So, a political hack like Rand Paul really ought to shut his pie-hole until we know exactly how these variants are spreading.  Why?  Because we're this close to tamping this thing down and it's deadly.  Just wear a f#&%ing mask  :facepalm:
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The article I linked is an actual observance of T Cells recognizing the current variants after previous exposure to the ‘wild type’ virus. 
 

What you have linked is a study that is hypothesizing why a resurgence of cases is happening in Manaus, with the third hypothesis being that the variants are reinfecting. The first hypothesis presented is that they perhaps overestimated the degree of mass infection in Manaus. 

 
Scarlet said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/10/covid-19-reinfections-are-real-and-serious-all-the-more-reason-to-be-vaccinated/amp/

"For such a drastic acceleration of variant integration, there must have been reinfections. As it turns out, it may have been the driving force. Dr. Faria noted the likelihood that most of the cases observed in P.1’s spread the past few months were reinfections."

Another scientist, Dr. Haseltine, contradicts Paul.  
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There is a reinfection tracker:  https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/

Not too many to speak of.  However not a lot of localities are genome sequencing to see if variants are reinfecting...hopefully we’ll continue to learn. 
I do think you’ll begin to see more reinfections, but likely primarily due to waning immunity from unvaccinated people who caught covid in early 2020. 

 
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