The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

So we had our normal Tuesday morning meeting and we were told that we weren't doing anything besides our new "6-feet away from everyone at all times" rule until the government says otherwise! One guy in our Nebraska office responds that the Nebraska Bankers's Association has already encouraged all banks to close their lobbies and only let people in on appointment only. 

Flash-forward to 2:30 pm yesterday: Uh... we're gonna close our lobbies too! Gotta get ahead of this thing! 

 
BigRedBuster said:
So, right now, I'm an extremely healthy company.  The government locks down society so that my products can not be sold.  I still have bank loans and commitments.

I should go bankrupt and out of business ONLY because of this disease.
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I'm sorry to hear this, BRB. 

My father, mother, and sister own/operate a wedding venue. It was chugging along nicely, so they all quit their other jobs and this became their sole source of income. These restrictions have explicitly zeroed out their revenue for the foreseeable future. My parents just sold their home and built a smaller home... on a sliver of the wedding venue property. If their is no relief at the banking level, I fear the absolute worst for their business and housing.

 
I work in healthcare as I said before, my role had shifted to a more management position - just got the call I may be flexed back to patient care soon. Also word is Omaha area hospitals are clearing beds to prep for the coming wave. Be safe out there guys.

 
FrantzHardySwag said:
I work in healthcare as I said before, my role had shifted to a more management position - just got the call I may be flexed back to patient care soon. Also word is Omaha area hospitals are clearing beds to prep for the coming wave. Be safe out there guys.
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Yep.  My wife is a nurse at an Omaha hospital.  They've already cut back on elective procedures like IVF to make sure supplies and personnel will be available.  They've also waived CPR certifications because so many training sessions have been cancelled.

She is already stressed out and the wave hasn't came yet.  Thank you for putting in the hard and important work that you guys do!

 
Here in the metro Detroit area there seems to be no common standard between hospitals. Some hospitals are asking employees if they have symptoms before they clock in. Because of the shortage of masks (because people are dumb and don't listen) sometimes they have to use the same mask indefinitely and place it in a paper bag when not in use. Some hospitals are giving nurses masks if they have them. Some are only giving respritory therapists masks but not nurses. Some are using those funky looking hoods out of a Hollywood movie about viruses. Fortunately things haven't got out of control yet, but it sounds alarming.

 
QMany said:
This thread, summarizing the Imperial College report and modeling, is terrifying.
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Did I read this right? These mitigation policies need to be in place until large stockpiles of vaccine are available, which may take as long as 18 months??? I figured 3-6 months... 18 months without school? I can't imagine that happening, but then again even a month ago, I didn't imagine any of this. 

 
QMany said:
This thread, summarizing the Imperial College report and modeling, is terrifying.
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Here's the whole thread, unwrapped:




 


We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…





The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?





Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.





It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.





So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.





How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.





Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.





Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.





This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.





And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.





That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.





Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.





Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.





But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.





After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.





But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.





How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.





Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.





Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.





During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.





It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end
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It's interesting to see where people get their news. Those of us expressing caution throughout this thread have been accused of lots of craziness, but all we've been doing is listening to the experts and disseminating their information. That is not inciting panic, it is simply the truth about what's happening.   Some people don't like that truth, so they make weird claims.
 
Reading this, it seems like we haven't done remotely enough to contain this. All of the measures we've taken, that people have complained about along the way, haven't done what still needs to be done. 
 
This is going to be a long haul, folks. And we're all in it together.
 
 



 
Born N Bled Red said:
Did I read this right? These mitigation policies need to be in place until large stockpiles of vaccine are available, which may take as long as 18 months??? I figured 3-6 months... 18 months without school? I can't imagine that happening, but then again even a month ago, I didn't imagine any of this. 
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Yes, best estimate is 18 months if suppression works. There are some anti-viral treatments that could be a Hail Mary, but I wouldn't count on that.

 
FrantzHardySwag said:
I work in healthcare as I said before, my role had shifted to a more management position - just got the call I may be flexed back to patient care soon. Also word is Omaha area hospitals are clearing beds to prep for the coming wave. Be safe out there guys.
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I work at one.  It eerily seems like the calm before the storm.  

 
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