The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

RedDenver said:
I'm sure you do. You basing that on anything other than your own preconceived notions?
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I am basing it on what I would do, correct.

Everyone thought it was not a young persons disease

Everyone knows you can build up an immunity to things over time

It is way more cost effective to have people fight it off on their own and not run to hospitals. 

 
RedDenver said:
Number of covid-19 deaths yesterday was 362, down from 525 the day before. Hopefully it's a sign that the measures taken a couple weeks ago are working.
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Yeah, I saw that yesterday and was hoping that was a true number and not just because it was a Sunday and documentation of deaths hadn't been done.  But, so far today, we are only up to 31.  So, hopefully it really is a good sign.

 
BigRedBuster said:
Yeah, I saw that yesterday and was hoping that was a true number and not just because it was a Sunday and documentation of deaths hadn't been done.  But, so far today, we are only up to 31.  So, hopefully it really is a good sign.
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Even if the numbers of deaths were the same instead of increasing each day, that would be a good sign.

 
BlitzFirst said:
That's misleading...we're only testing about 90-100k people daily to diagnose them nationwide.  That's horrid.  If someone dies before being tested, how much time do you think a swamped doctor or morgue doctor is going to waste testing that dead person?

Morgues are backed up and there aren't enough doctors around to pronounce cause of death currently...plus the testing for patients that are dying are taking 10-15 days to come in.

Considering we went from 900 deaths on Wednesday last week to 2,428 deaths by Sunday...I don't see this thing slowing down for the next few weeks at least.  NYC hospitals agree with that saying they expect the peak in the next 2-3 weeks.

Source for my info:  https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/
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You might be right. It's only one data point. But since the time between exposure and death is roughly 2 weeks and a lot of the US implemented social distancing and other measures about 2 weeks ago, this is when we'd expect to start seeing the death rate be affected.

 
BlitzFirst said:
That's misleading...we're only testing about 90-100k people daily to diagnose them nationwide.  That's horrid.  If someone dies before being tested, how much time do you think a swamped doctor or morgue doctor is going to waste testing that dead person?

Morgues are backed up and there aren't enough doctors around to pronounce cause of death currently...plus the testing for patients that are dying are taking 10-15 days to come in.

Considering we went from 900 deaths on Wednesday last week to 2,428 deaths by Sunday...I don't see this thing slowing down for the next few weeks at least.  NYC hospitals agree with that saying they expect the peak in the next 2-3 weeks.

Source for my info:  https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/
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Unfortunately I think this is more likely than things slowing down. Social distancing has been strict in some areas and loose in others. I don't see that as being a recipe for success so I am weary to say that's the reason the numbers were down for a single day. Deaths in Italy had appeared to level off at 500 at one point because the deaths dropped for 1 day. Now they have recorded 800 deaths for a few days in a row. 

 
RedDenver said:
Number of covid-19 deaths yesterday was 362, down from 525 the day before. Hopefully it's a sign that the measures taken a couple weeks ago are working.
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Yeah, I was thinking that as well.

I wonder if "we" have found ways to slow it down a bit, which is really the first step.  Buying time.  

 
RedDenver said:
You might be right. It's only one data point. But since the time between exposure and death is roughly 2 weeks and a lot of the US implemented social distancing and other measures about 2 weeks ago, this is when we'd expect to start seeing the death rate be affected.
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I thought it was closer to 3 weeks from infection to death. ~18 days on average. New infections leveled off after 15 days in Italy. Deaths took a few more days. But the problem is, many places such as Florida can't really start that 15 day clock even yet. I saw live stream of crowded church service in Florida yesterday. 

 
BlitzFirst said:
Well here's something to look at.  Look at the percentage of people tested who are infected and you'll see what I'm saying instead of the deaths:

16.7% of all tested are infected 29 Mar 2020 Sun
16.1% of all tested are infected 28 Mar 2020 Sat
15.8% of all tested are infected 27 Mar 2020 Fri
15.5% of all tested are infected 26 Mar 2020 Thur
15.1% of all tested are infected 25 Mar 2020 Wed

They're testing 100k more people each day and the above is happening.  421,532 on Wednesday.  831,351 on Sunday.
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I don't know if they are posting all of the correct numbers but from the data I have access to Mississippi has had above a 75% positive rate the last 2 days

Our restrictions are pretty lax and I know of restaurants that are ignoring the no dine in order. Many people aren't listening still

 
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teachercd said:
Yeah, I was thinking that as well.

I wonder if "we" have found ways to slow it down a bit, which is really the first step.  Buying time.  
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I mean, we already have ways to slow down the spread and buy time. Test/trace/quarantine, hygiene/washing hands, restricted travel, no large crowds/events, social distancing, etc.

 
RedDenver said:
I mean, we already have ways to slow down the spread and buy time. Test/trace/quarantine, hygiene/washing hands, restricted travel, no large crowds/events, social distancing, etc.
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The problem for us is we aren't doing terribly well on the first portion. I have heard multiple stories of infected individuals being told not to tell anyone. It seems our tracing system isn't very strong at least in some places. That's the problem across the board, all of our measures have been piecemeal 

 
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Since there's been some posts about testing numbers, so I thought I'd share updates for Colorado:

Colorado Case Summary (Updated 3/29/20 at 4:00 p.m.)
Note: This summary only includes data through 3/28 and does not reflect cases since then.  

2,307 cases*
326 hospitalized
46 counties
14,470 people tested
47 deaths 
10 outbreaks at residential and non-hospital health care facilities

*The number of cases includes people who have had a test that indicated they were positive for COVID-19. The number of cases also includes epidemiologically-linked cases -- or cases where public health epidemiologists have determined that infection is highly likely because a person exhibited symptoms and had close contact with someone who tested positive. The number of epidemiologically-linked cases represents a very small portion of the reported cases.
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Given those numbers: About 16% (see note) have tested positive out of those tested and a case fatality rate of 2.0%.

 
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