Bracketology

Will Nebrasketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

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B.B. Hemingway said:
You say this like the selection committee has showed consistency in their criteria over the years when picking the teams for the tournament.... From year to year, none of us really know what they are going to emphasis throughout this process.
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Rasmussen, one of the guys on the selection committee, pointed out the weakness of the big 10.  Also, Michigan is the only team in the tournament that Nebraska has beaten that would be in the tournament (if it started today).  I think Nebraska would make some noise but I'm looking at it through an outsider perspective and our resume isn't nearly good enough.  One loss in the regular season and we're out for sure 

 
Red Five said:
ESPN's BPI has us winning 3.9 games of the final 7.  % Chance of each win:

@ Wisc 36%

@ Minn 37%

Rut 82%

Mary 56%

@ Ill 48%

Ind 73%

PSU 58%
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So basically 4-3 winning home games, losing road games.  Would put them at 20-11, 11-7.  That probably wouldn't be enough to get there without a magical run in the conference tournament.  Would make them a solid seed in the NIT.

 
I don’t get the love for USC. Wins over no one and a few bad losses, but yet they are in about every bracket.  Baffling. 

 
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Moiraine said:
Doesn't matter if Maryland is ahead of us, because we can take care of that ourselves.

We are in 5 brackets now instead of 4, so that's good.
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IIRC we were in eight before the weekend. 

At any rate, I think the only way we are in for sure is if we win our next four games and probably two games in the B1G tourney and hopefully those two wins are over Michigan and Ohio State. 

 
Virginia tech beats Duke and it's starting to look like Nebraska will need at least two wins in the big ten tournament to make it to the dance

 
GSG said:
He tweeted this on Saturday:


Not sure how much it has changed since then.
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This is what I have been trying to explain to people on here. Nebraska has exactly 1 quality win (NCAA Defined Tier 1) on it's schedule this year. Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not a NCAA tournament profile. It just isn't. I don't know if people on here just aren't familiar with what criteria the Selection Committee uses or what but Nebraska has a long way to go still. They need to win every game from here on out and probably 2 in the B1G tournament to even be in the conversation.

 
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VitMan said:
IIRC we were in eight before the weekend. 

At any rate, I think the only way we are in for sure is if we win our next four games and probably two games in the B1G tourney and hopefully those two wins are over Michigan and Ohio State. 
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I thought it was 4 for some reason.  Oops.

 
seaofred92 said:
This is what I have been trying to explain to people on here. Nebraska has exactly 1 quality win (NCAA Defined Tier 1) on it's schedule this year. Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not a NCAA tournament profile. It just isn't. I don't know if people on here just aren't familiar with what criteria the Selection Committee uses or what but Nebraska has a long way to go still. They need to win every game from here on out and probably 2 in the B1G tournament to even be in the conversation.
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For reference, here is Houston's profile currently. Lunardi has them as the last team in the "Last 4 Byes" section: 

http://insider.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/248

Houston RPI: 49

vs RPI Top 25: 2-1

vs RPI Top 50: 4-1

vs RPI Top 100: 4-2

 
Well St. John's beating Duke could have helped Nebraska's non con SOS a little bit today, but Kansas and UCF had to go and lose games at home. At best this is probably a wash then.

 
huskerpower13 said:
Just crazy to me that Maryland could be ahead of us according to that. I know it's been said over and over again in here that the committee doesn't look at conference record but come on, they are 4-7 in the conference and 2-6 in their last 8 games. I don't know in what world they should be considered higher than us in anyone's rankings.
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I think it still matters who you play. 

They've lost twice to Michigan St, lost twice to Purdue, and lost to Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio State.

They beat Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, and Illinois.

I agree that's far from impressive, but if you flip the Penn State and Michigan results, it's really the same as what Nebraska has done except they played the good teams more often.

 
ScottyIce said:
If conference wins suddenly have a big impact on your resume, well then sign me up...........
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When comparing two teams in the same conference, I would think that would be one way to determine who's had the better year.

 
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seaofred92 said:
This is what I have been trying to explain to people on here. Nebraska has exactly 1 quality win (NCAA Defined Tier 1) on it's schedule this year. Nebraska is currently 0-3 vs RPI top 25, 1-5 vs RPI top 50, and 3-7 vs RPI top 100 teams. That is not a NCAA tournament profile. It just isn't. I don't know if people on here just aren't familiar with what criteria the Selection Committee uses or what but Nebraska has a long way to go still. They need to win every game from here on out and probably 2 in the B1G tournament to even be in the conversation.
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Unfortunately, I agree.  The 1-point loss to Kansas hurts a lot, as do several of the other games that they couldn't close out.  The only chance of getting another big win lies in the BIG Tourney.  Meet up with Purdue, OSU, or MSU and maybe there's a chance.

 
HS_Coach_C said:
I think most of us realize Nebraska's chances are basically gone.  However, it's still interesting to see how the conference tournaments are going, so here's a quick rundown of where they stand:

Tournament Championship

EARNED AUTOMATIC BID (12)  -  20 Conference Tournaments Remain To Be Completed

Should Earn At-Large Bid (33)

On the Bubble (27)

POWER 6

ACC: Saturday (Virginia, Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, NC State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame)

Big 12: Saturday (Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas)

Big East: Saturday (Xavier, Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, Butler, Providence, Marquette)

Big Ten: MICHIGAN (Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State)

Pac-12: Saturday (Arizona, USC, UCLA, Utah, Washington, Arizona State)

SEC: Sunday (Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi State)

Other conferences with possible At-Large teams:

America East: Saturday (Vermont)

American: Sunday (Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston)

Atlantic 10: Sunday (Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure)

Conference USA: Saturday (Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky)

Missouri Valley: LOYOLA-CHICAGO

Mountain West: Saturday (Nevada, Boise State)

Summit: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

Sun Belt: Sunday (Louisiana)

West Coast: GONZAGA (St. Mary's)

WAC: Saturday (New Mexico State)

Conferences with only 1 bid no matter what:

Atlantic Sun: LIPSCOMB

Big Sky: Saturday

Big South: RADFORD

Big West: Saturday

Colonial: CHARLESTON

Horizon: WRIGHT STATE

Ivy: Sunday

Metro Atlantic: IONA

MAC: Saturday

MEAC: Saturday

Northeast: LIU BROOKLYN

Ohio Valley: MURRAY STATE

Patriot: Wednesday

Southern: UNC GREENSBORO

Southland: Saturday

Southwestern: Saturday

Best Case Scenario for Bubble Teams: All Conferences with an At-Large Lock win the tournament

That would mean 32 auto-bids + 24 At-Large Locks = 56 Spots taken in the field

Assuming teams on the bubble win conferences that don't have any locks, that leaves 24 Bubble Teams

That would leave 12 At-Large Spots for the 24 Remaining Bubble Teams

The Pecking Order for the remaining Bubble Teams is probably something like this:

1. Butler

2. St. Bonaventure

3. Oklahoma

4. Arizona State

5. Kansas State

6. St. Mary's

7. Baylor

8. Providence

9. USC

10. Texas

11. UCLA

12. Louisville                                 

13. Alabama

14. Marquette

15. Syracuse

16. Nebraska

17. Oklahoma State

18. Mississippi State

19. Washington

20. Notre Dame

21. Utah

22. Penn State

23. Western Kentucky

24. Boise State
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UPDATED TO REFLECT TUESDAY'S GAMES

 
HS_Coach_C said:
Unfortunately, I agree.  The 1-point loss to Kansas hurts a lot, as do several of the other games that they couldn't close out.  The only chance of getting another big win lies in the BIG Tourney.  Meet up with Purdue, OSU, or MSU and maybe there's a chance.
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Yup. Which is why I made such a big deal of the debacle at the end of the tOSU game the other night. Nebraska has blown opportunities for W's against Creighton, KU, and tOSU. You flip those games from L's to W's and all of a sudden Nebraska is right there. It's obviously great that we're winning games against these other teams but what I don't think many people realize here is that the teams we're beating (Iowa, Rutgers, Illinois, etc) really aren't very good at all and therefore wins don't really add anything to our overall profile.

 
HS_Coach_C said:
Virginia tech beats Duke and it's starting to look like Nebraska will need at least two wins in the big ten tournament to make it to the dance
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Virginia Tech was already in the tournament. We have to worry about teams like Syracuse, UCLA, USC, Boise State, Washington, and Mississippi State.

 
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