The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

RedDenver said:
My post clearly said I was referencing case data and had a link to the source. But the comparison I made was hospitalization rate of cases of covid vs cases of flu, both of which are based on positive testing, so it's a reasonable comparison especially as an argument against the assertion that covid is similar to the flu. Covid has much higher hospitalization rates among people who have tested positive for covid than flu does for people that have tested positive for the flu.
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You might want to consider the circumstances under which a case of influenza is confirmed vs covid.  There might be some underlying factors that affect the comparison. 

 
Nebfanatic said:
Why? Checking into the site they are rated fairly well and while they occasionally post misleading science they are typically known for quality material. Take each article on a case by case basis. I like this article because it goes in depth about why this could be a real possibility. Other articles have focused on is this deliberate or is this bioterrorism, this article stays above that fray. It mainly explores the idea that the pathogen could have escaped, something that is more common than we are aware of as this article highlights. Its well sourced and I would recommend reading it. I would do my due diligence(check the sources they site), but it is a very intriguing read. 

Also, this article does not claim that this is definitely the source of COVID, just that more investigation is warranted given the questions raised by this disease and its origins 

Edit: https://www.google.com/amp/s/mediabiasfactcheck.com/independent-science-news/%3famp fact check on the site in question
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It's a good and informative article. I enjoyed the read, and had no idea how commom "escaped" viruses are.

 
ZRod said:
It's a good and informative article. I enjoyed the read, and had no idea how commom "escaped" viruses are.
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I will say I do have a gripe with the headline. I would make it building a case for instead of the case is building. I don't think anytime in the article was that strong of evidence but it is an interesting theory for a few reasons.

The one that really got me is the region where the bats who have these coronaviruses live is like 1000 miles from Wuhan. Thats a long way for the outbreak to happen there with no other outbreaks occurring along the way. I will say the current working theory that this went from bat to human or bat to intermediate animal to human should still be the operating assumption imo, but there are still alot of questions that need to be answered and I think this article did a good job of exploring a few of those questions. 

 
The CDC removed its hospital dashboard from public view until there were a bunch of complaints. I wonder how much stuff this administration is getting away with that people don’t find out about. 

 
https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-we-know-coronavirus-was-not-made-in-the-lab?fbclid=IwAR0LxY5zFoeLumrYNyw6pyzHYLcRMiF-cKdjO1QRbFZuFKep3DZQhOC-vBg


 

The genetic makeup or "genome" of SARS-CoV-2 has been sequenced and publicly shared thousands of times by scientists all over the world. If the virus had been genetically engineered in a lab there would be signs of manipulation in the genome data.

This would include evidence of an existing viral sequence as the backbone for the new virus, and obvious, targeted inserted (or deleted) genetic elements.

But no such evidence exists. It is very unlikely that any techniques used to genetically engineer the virus would not leave a genetic signature, like specific identifiable pieces of DNA code.

The genome of SARS-CoV-2 is similar to that of other bat coronaviruses, as well as those of pangolins, all of which have a similar overall genomic architecture.

Differences between the genomes of these coronaviruses show natural patterns typical of coronavirus evolution. This suggests that SARS-CoV-2 evolved from a previous wild coronavirus.
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I know zilch about this stuff, but to add an anecdote, someone in my immediate family analyzes genetic data for the purpose of helping diagnose/prevent illness, and they say this came from animals.

 
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Moiraine said:
https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-how-we-know-coronavirus-was-not-made-in-the-lab?fbclid=IwAR0LxY5zFoeLumrYNyw6pyzHYLcRMiF-cKdjO1QRbFZuFKep3DZQhOC-vBg


 

I know zilch about this stuff, but to add an anecdote, someone in my immediate family analyzes genetic data for the purpose of helping diagnose/prevent illness, and they say this came from animals.
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The article I posted doesn't make the claim this was made in a lab. The theory is the coronavirus is a natural bat virus being studied in the lab that perhaps esaped. The scientists can culture natural coronavirus cells into other cells causing them to mutate into something that could infect humans since most coronaviruses cannot go directly from bat to human. This would technically be a natural process or simulates a natural process of zoonotic transmission. There would be no evidence this was engineered because in this theory it still wasn't but rather manipulated in a very similar way to what would happen in nature. These tests called gain of function tests were (and i assume still are) being performed in Wuhan at labs that study bat coronaviruses. All of the evidence is circumstantial at best but its an interesting theory for 1 reason imo and that is Wuhan is a very unlikely place for a coronavirus outbreak given how far away it is from where these coronavirus carrying bats live. That in no way means it couldn't have happened completely naturally, that should still be the working theory. That said though, the origins remain unknown and I think the lab escape theory is worth exploring. 

 
Nebfanatic said:
The article I posted doesn't make the claim this was made in a lab. The theory is the coronavirus is a natural bat virus being studied in the lab that perhaps esaped. The scientists can culture natural coronavirus cells into other cells causing them to mutate into something that could infect humans since most coronaviruses cannot go directly from bat to human. This would technically be a natural process or simulates a natural process of zoonotic transmission. There would be no evidence this was engineered because in this theory it still wasn't but rather manipulated in a very similar way to what would happen in nature. These tests called gain of function tests were (and i assume still are) being performed in Wuhan at labs that study bat coronaviruses. All of the evidence is circumstantial at best but its an interesting theory for 1 reason imo and that is Wuhan is a very unlikely place for a coronavirus outbreak given how far away it is from where these coronavirus carrying bats live. That in no way means it couldn't have happened completely naturally, that should still be the working theory. That said though, the origins remain unknown and I think the lab escape theory is worth exploring. 
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However it's far more likely, imo, that someone from a rural area near Wuhan contracted it and there wasn't a huge outbreak because of the low population density, and then at some point traveled to the city where there was then an outbreak. And I think hypothetical articles like this only inflame the racist Trump supporters.

 
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Moiraine said:
However it's far more likely, imo, that someone from a rural area near Wuhan contracted it and there wasn't a huge outbreak because of the low population density, and then at some point traveled to the city where there was then an outbreak. And I think hypothetical articles like this only inflame the racist Trump supporters.
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I'm not sure how that is more likely when the area where the bats live is nearly 1000 miles away. Also the article addresses that idea and dispenses of it. This is not an indictment on the Chinese. The same thing could happen here just as easily. Its important we track down the origins of this outbreak and this is a possibility. I think it needs to be explored if anything to rule it out. If this was the result of an accidental escape involving a lab though(something that has happened before) that would be a good thing to know for evaluation on pandemic preparation into the future. The same could be said about finding the natural origins. 

Edit: the use of many times in my original post is not accurate

 
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Nebfanatic said:
I'm not sure how that is more likely when the area where the bats live is nearly 1000 miles away. Also the article addresses that idea and dispenses of it. This is not an indictment on the Chinese. The same thing could happen here just as easily. Its important we track down the origins of this outbreak and this is a possibility. I think it needs to be explored if anything to rule it out. If this was the result of an accidental escape involving a lab though(something that has happened before) that would be a good thing to know for evaluation on pandemic preparation into the future. The same could be said about finding the natural origins. 

Edit: the use of many times in my original post is not accurate
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Another good article:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

Shi instructed her group to repeat the tests and, at the same time, sent the samples to another facility to sequence the full viral genomes. Meanwhile she frantically went through her own lab’s records from the past few years to check for any mishandling of experimental materials, especially during disposal. Shi breathed a sigh of relief when the results came back: none of the sequences matched those of the viruses her team had sampled from bat caves. “That really took a load off my mind,” she says. “I had not slept a wink for days.”
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Back in Wuhan, where the lockdown was finally lifted on April 8, China’s bat woman is not in a celebratory mood. She is distressed because stories from the Internet and major media have repeated a tenuous suggestion that SARS-CoV-2 accidentally leaked from her lab—despite the fact that its genetic sequence does not match any her lab had previously studied. Other scientists are quick to dismiss the allegation. “Shi leads a world-class lab of the highest standards,” Daszak says.
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Nebfanatic said:
I'm not sure how that is more likely when the area where the bats live is nearly 1000 miles away.
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People can easily travel more than 1000 miles in a day. Covid has an incubation period of several days to a couple weeks. Someone getting exposed and then traveling to Wuhan seems much more likely than that the virus escaped from a lab.

 
Nebfanatic said:
Look I'm not going to keep berating the point because its not worth it, but this is not information China, or most other governments for that matter, would likely share if they found it. Like I said in all my posts, we should still operate under the assumption this happened completely naturally. 
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You should read the article though.

 
RedDenver said:
People can easily travel more than 1000 miles in a day. Covid has an incubation period of several days to a couple weeks. Someone getting exposed and then traveling to Wuhan seems much more likely than that the virus escaped from a lab.
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Fair enough 

Edit: can't resist, but my only contention with this is no spread beyond Wuhan. Yes people can travel 1000 miles, thats not my contention. Its more so that no one else was apparently infected along the way. Now that could be a result of just missing those cases all together as well.

Moiraine said:
You should read the article though.
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I skimmed it but have already read a few articles on Shi

 
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