*** 2017 Recruiting ***

GBRFAN said:
cm husker said:
GBRFAN said:
Looking at the 5 most recent classes that have activity make it pretty easy to see the current trend: (#'s from 247)

2014 84.72 avg 2 4* - bo's class

2015 86.17 avg 4 4* - bo and riley class (2 of those 4* where riley and most of class was bo - riley % of 4* was pretty high)

2016 87.07 avg 5 4* - riley class

2017 87.17 avg 4 4* (pace for 8 4*) - assuming class is half full and we are in on a ton of 4/5* guys

2018 89.82 avg 1 4* (pace for several) - class is 50% 4* with many 4/5* guys showing interest

The avg ranking has increased 3 points with the potential to be 5+ by the time this class fills up

The 4* or better players went from 2 to 5 with the pace this year being 8 or more

yes we need a sold W-L record to make the 2017/2018 numbers exploded, however even with a poor W-L record from last year I can't see how the above numbers aren't obvious that they have improved and with a solid (8-4) W-L record these numbers will improve / with a 10+ Win season those numbers go thru the roof for 2017/2018

Say what you want about on the field results and I believe that will be changing soon - however from a recruiting stand point the tide has turned.
Click to expand...
So... you take one Bo class and call that the historical trend at Nebraska? That's nonsense.

Maybe you should expand to look at more numbers? And perhaps projecting 2017 and especially 2018 based on today's verbals isn't that reliable either? For example, a team having two 5* committed at the midway point in no way demonstrates or means that such team will finish with four 5* recruits. It simply doesn't work like that. In fact, at this point, we will likely see a drop in average over the next several months as we add more guys below the mean than above it (which is historically the case in recruiting).

We are something like 28th or 30th in the country in recruiting right now. 8th in the B10. For 2018, we have 2 "verbally committed" recruits and both are from Nebraska (meaning just about any coaching staff would have their commitments) and they are the ones driving the 89.92 average.

To add more context, NU's average ratings going back to include the other classes comprising the current roster (per 247):

2013 - 86.55 (statistical dead heat with 2016 and 2017) and ranked 22nd in nation

2012 - 87.73 (statistical dead head with Riley's classes, or maybe a bit higher) and ranked 30th in nation

2011 - 88.32 (outpacing current recruiting) and ranked 16th in nation

So, even if one accepted that there was a dip in 2014, which maybe there was because of the attack our staff was under that season, the HISTORICAL TREND at Nebraska is no different than what we are seeing under Riley.

If he were landing regular top 12 classes, then we could talk about how recruiting will be our savior.

But as of now, we better hope that Riley figures out how to win with his team as it is, because I don't see it miraculously upgrading to a Alabama type roster.
Click to expand...
Thanks for putting words in my mouth that are from a different language.
I said nothing about historical trend.... I said the last five years because it is the most current and relevant. (in my post before this all started because I was talking about believing in your product - I have stated many times in the past that I felt bo stopped believing in the NU product towards the end of his tenure)

Taking current data for 2017 and 2018 is all we can do because the classes haven't reached NSD. Projections are not as reliable as the end results by definition, however they can be equally accurate if done correctly and at this point that is all we can go on. I would say you are completely wrong in the fact do to our poor record last year - it has caused a lot of the top 4/5* guys to use the wait and see approach. Usually it is the opposite where guys want to get there seat and then at the end some leave and you have to fill those seats with plan b or c guys. We are not in that position right now and that is obvious.

Again stop with the putting words in my mouth -- I have never stated that recruiting would be our savior. Even for TO recruiting wasn't the deal. NU will never be a top recruiting destination. We need to get solid recruits and then coach them up to play as a unit.

If you want to start a thread about HISTORICAL TRENDS - so be it, however this thread is about 2017 recruiting and I have chosen to discuss the years around 2017
Click to expand...
One class is not a trend. Period.

FYI, you posted your stats in reply to my statement that recruiting under Riley is not different than its always been.

You said the "tide has turned."

There's no evidence of that at this point.

 
cm husker said:
GBRFAN said:
cm husker said:
GBRFAN said:
Looking at the 5 most recent classes that have activity make it pretty easy to see the current trend: (#'s from 247)

2014 84.72 avg 2 4* - bo's class

2015 86.17 avg 4 4* - bo and riley class (2 of those 4* where riley and most of class was bo - riley % of 4* was pretty high)

2016 87.07 avg 5 4* - riley class

2017 87.17 avg 4 4* (pace for 8 4*) - assuming class is half full and we are in on a ton of 4/5* guys

2018 89.82 avg 1 4* (pace for several) - class is 50% 4* with many 4/5* guys showing interest

The avg ranking has increased 3 points with the potential to be 5+ by the time this class fills up

The 4* or better players went from 2 to 5 with the pace this year being 8 or more

yes we need a sold W-L record to make the 2017/2018 numbers exploded, however even with a poor W-L record from last year I can't see how the above numbers aren't obvious that they have improved and with a solid (8-4) W-L record these numbers will improve / with a 10+ Win season those numbers go thru the roof for 2017/2018

Say what you want about on the field results and I believe that will be changing soon - however from a recruiting stand point the tide has turned.
Click to expand...
So... you take one Bo class and call that the historical trend at Nebraska? That's nonsense.

Maybe you should expand to look at more numbers? And perhaps projecting 2017 and especially 2018 based on today's verbals isn't that reliable either? For example, a team having two 5* committed at the midway point in no way demonstrates or means that such team will finish with four 5* recruits. It simply doesn't work like that. In fact, at this point, we will likely see a drop in average over the next several months as we add more guys below the mean than above it (which is historically the case in recruiting).

We are something like 28th or 30th in the country in recruiting right now. 8th in the B10. For 2018, we have 2 "verbally committed" recruits and both are from Nebraska (meaning just about any coaching staff would have their commitments) and they are the ones driving the 89.92 average.

To add more context, NU's average ratings going back to include the other classes comprising the current roster (per 247):

2013 - 86.55 (statistical dead heat with 2016 and 2017) and ranked 22nd in nation

2012 - 87.73 (statistical dead head with Riley's classes, or maybe a bit higher) and ranked 30th in nation

2011 - 88.32 (outpacing current recruiting) and ranked 16th in nation

So, even if one accepted that there was a dip in 2014, which maybe there was because of the attack our staff was under that season, the HISTORICAL TREND at Nebraska is no different than what we are seeing under Riley.

If he were landing regular top 12 classes, then we could talk about how recruiting will be our savior.

But as of now, we better hope that Riley figures out how to win with his team as it is, because I don't see it miraculously upgrading to a Alabama type roster.
Click to expand...
Thanks for putting words in my mouth that are from a different language.
I said nothing about historical trend.... I said the last five years because it is the most current and relevant. (in my post before this all started because I was talking about believing in your product - I have stated many times in the past that I felt bo stopped believing in the NU product towards the end of his tenure)

Taking current data for 2017 and 2018 is all we can do because the classes haven't reached NSD. Projections are not as reliable as the end results by definition, however they can be equally accurate if done correctly and at this point that is all we can go on. I would say you are completely wrong in the fact do to our poor record last year - it has caused a lot of the top 4/5* guys to use the wait and see approach. Usually it is the opposite where guys want to get there seat and then at the end some leave and you have to fill those seats with plan b or c guys. We are not in that position right now and that is obvious.

Again stop with the putting words in my mouth -- I have never stated that recruiting would be our savior. Even for TO recruiting wasn't the deal. NU will never be a top recruiting destination. We need to get solid recruits and then coach them up to play as a unit.

If you want to start a thread about HISTORICAL TRENDS - so be it, however this thread is about 2017 recruiting and I have chosen to discuss the years around 2017
Click to expand...
One class is not a trend. Period.
FYI, you posted your stats in reply to my statement that recruiting under Riley is not different than its always been.

You said the "tide has turned."

There's no evidence of that at this point.
Click to expand...
I agree the tide has not turned yet. But it does seem the tide is turning. The recruiting experts said that if we would have had a better season last year we would have probably finished closer to a top 10-15 class. I would imagine our on field performance will be better and then we can close on some of these top recruits we are in on.

 
I don't trust recruitnik reporters.

Their incentives are not aligned and their experience and intelligence is too often lacking.

Re: incentives, it would not be good business for the recruitnik sites to publish reports of doom and gloom at this point. Hopes and dreams sell much better.

 
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A couple additions. Took DE off the Priority list as it looks like we may only take one. Added DB as we don't have any commits there yet.

Priority:
DT - Only four left after this year. Behind by not taking one last year. For sure need two.
TE - Only three after this year but at least they're young.

DB - Our roster isn't in bad shape but we don't have any commits there yet.
OT - Sitting well now with two commits - Put Bando at Guard for now because we're still looking for another OT.

-----------------------------------------

QB - 1 - TRISTAN GEBBIA
RB - 1 - Jamari Peacock
FB - 0-1 - Ben Miles
WR - 4 - KEYSHAWN JOHNSON Jr., JAEVON McQUITTY, Jamire Calvin, Tyjon Lindsey, Joseph Lewis
TE - 3 - AUSTIN ALLEN, Reese Leitao, Kurt Rafdal, Cade Otton
OT - 3 - BRENDEN JAIMES, MATT SICHTERMAN, Ryan Nelson, Aaron Banks, Austin Jackson
OG/C - 1-2 - BROC BANDO

DT - 2-3 - DEONTRE THOMAS, Damion Daniels, Ben Hutch
DE - 1-2 - ROBERT PORCHER, GUY THOMAS, Martin Andrus
LB - 3 - WILLIE HAMPTON, AVERY ROBERTS, Rahyme Johnson, Addison Gumbs
CB - 1-2 - Darnay Holmes, Jaylon Redd, Gentry Bonds, TraJon Cotton
S - 1-2 - Jaylen Kelly-Powell, Nick Pickett

 
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Mavric - I have to tell you that I think you're amazing. You're so on top of everything and organized - we all benefit from your hard work on this site (I just stumbled onto the spreadsheet with our number of picks correct - you're fantastic!)

Also, as I reread this I see that I sound a little Trumpish, but I stand by it all. Mavric is fantastic, amazing, wonderful and awesome.
default_thumbsup.gif


 
Yup, Mavric is just 'marrrrvelous!' He keeps this board a popping with lots of interesting topics, information and discussion. He's not alone but he is certainly a leader of Huskerboard! Thanks a bunch to all of you people, whether I agree or not, I enjoy the conversation and don't mind the criticism and disagreement, althoug it will be more educational if you try to get facts straight. I am so ready for football!

 
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