The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

RedDenver said:
Note: this is just my own estimates based on very simple assumptions.

Someone mentioned that the flu caused 80,000 deaths two years ago, which got me thinking about how long until covid-19 hits those kinds of numbers given it's exponential increase. The current doubling time for deaths in the US is 3 days and there were 553 deaths as of yesterday. So the doubling time is:

80000=553*2^x => x = log2(80000/553) = 7.2 => 21.6 days to reach 80,000 deaths in the US
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The flu comparisons are so ridiculous to me for 1 major reason. A large portion of our population has immunity to flu because we have this cool thing called a vaccine. No one has immunity to COVID 19 until you get it. That alone causes an incredible difference in outcome, not to mention all of the other variables that differ greatly from the flu. I have a feeling 3 weeks from now whether you are completely accurate with this or not, people will finally start to realize 'oh s#!t, this is alot worse than the flu' 

 
Nebfanatic said:
The flu comparisons are so ridiculous to me for 1 major reason. A large portion of our population has immunity to flu because we have this cool thing called a vaccine. No one has immunity to COVID 19 until you get it. That alone causes an incredible difference in outcome, not to mention all of the other variables that differ greatly from the flu. I have a feeling 3 weeks from now whether you are completely accurate with this or not, people will finally start to realize 'oh s#!t, this is alot worse than the flu' 
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How about this one: according to CDC estimates in the US for the 2019-2020 influenza season so far there have been as many as 54M cases and 59K deaths. So 0.1% chance of death. COVID so far... almost 400K cases and 17K deaths, so 4% chance of death.

 
I had previously posted this incorrectly on the legislative thread:

This is interesting.  Thin skinned trump obviously cannot stand to be corrected or to have his unscientific statements/lies  exposed  -  so now Anthony Fauci is no longer showing up at the press briefings.

I wonder why.   Trump thinks he has to be in charge and at the center of everyone's attention. His weak personality cannot allow a expert in the subject to be at the center of attention.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-fauci.html

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/anthony-fauci-daily-press-briefing-nih/2020/03/23/id/959632/

Dr. Anthony Fauci's absence from the White House coronavirus task force briefing is making news.

Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was absent from the press briefing Monday for the second day in a row. His disagreements with President Donald Trump on the U.S.'s coronavirus response has made headlines, specifically comments he made to Science magazine over the weekend when he said there was a limit to what he could do when Trump made false statements.







"I can't jump in front of the microphone and push him down," Fauci said. "OK, he said it. Let's try and get it corrected for the next time."

Trump's patience is reportedly wearing thin with Fauci, according to a report in The New York Times published shortly after Monday's press briefing, and the president has become increasingly concerned with Fauci correcting his statements during the task force briefings.  
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RedDenver said:
Note: this is just my own estimates based on very simple assumptions.

Someone mentioned that the flu caused 80,000 deaths two years ago, which got me thinking about how long until covid-19 hits those kinds of numbers given it's exponential increase. The current doubling time for deaths in the US is 3 days and there were 553 deaths as of yesterday. So the doubling time is:

80000=553*2^x => x = log2(80000/553) = 7.2 => 21.6 days to reach 80,000 deaths in the US
Click to expand...


that's in a worse case scenario, and still .02%

not saying acceptable or preferred, just pointing it out 

 
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